MNI GLOBAL WEEK AHEAD: Riksbank and EZ CPIs Coming Up

MONDAY

Germany IFO: The German IFO index is expected to lose momentum in June, with the business climate index projected to decline by 0.7 points to 91.0, led largely by an anticipated 1.5-point reduction in the current assessment. Expectations are seen holding largely steady around the 88.5 mark, after dipping in May as firms braced for weaker demand as prices remain high and interest rates bite into investment. The IFO summer projections look for a -0.4% 2023 GDP contraction for the German economy.

TUESDAY

Italy Business / Consumer Confidence: After eurozone flash consumer confidence saw a modest improvement, Italian consumer sentiment should regain some modest growth momentum in June. A 0.4pp uptick to 105.5 is estimated. This follows a small May dip, underpinned by weakening future economic climate and personal finances.

Canada CPI: Canadian inflation looks set to slow further in May to +3.4% y/y, down 1.0pp. Short-term price pressures continue to build on the month, with consensus looking for a +0.5% m/m uptick. Last week the BOC raised its key rate by 25bp to a 2001 high of 4.75%, against expectations of a pause as concerns regarding sticky core inflation persist.

US Durable Goods / Consumer Confidence: A May -1.0% m/m contraction is pencilled in for US durable goods orders, whilst excluding transportation orders are expected to stall on the month (after the -0.3% April dip). This is in line with recent PMI data, which has flagged a continual decline in industrial demand.

The June Conference Board consumer confidence print is expected to improve by 1.5 points to 103.8, largely reversing the May decline. The expectations index has remained below the threshold of 80, almost consistently since February 2022, which has historically been associated with a recession.

WEDNESDAY

Germany Consumer Confidence: German consumer confidence is projected to continue strengthening, with consensus looking for a 1.2-point uptick to -23. Despite recent improvements, the index remains below Spring 2020 lockdown levels and in deeply pessimistic territory. As such, GfK continues to forecast a negligible contribution from private consumption to German GDP in 2023.

France Consumer Confidence: Following suit, June French consumer sentiment is projected to improve by one point to 84, after stalling in May. Further improvements in financial situation expectations, aided by a sharp fall in inflation concerns, were evident in May and likely to be reiterated.

Italy Flash Inflation: Italian harmonised CPI is projected to cool by 1.4pp to +6.6% y/y, whilst prices edge up by +0.1% m/m, kicking off the round of eurozone flash June data.

THURSDAY

Spain Flash Inflation: Spanish May inflation eased by 0.9pp to +2.9% y/y, and is expected to decelerate a further 1.5pp to +1.4% y/y, edging below the ECB’s 2% target for the first time since March 2021. The decline in May services PMI charges adds to the likelihood of a continued deceleration in core pressures, which remain significantly stronger at +6.1% y/y in May (albeit on a downwards trajectory).

Riksbank Meeting: Markets are looking for the Swedish Riskbank’s June meeting to deliver a 25bp hike to 3.75% in a further step to curb inflation and Krona weakness. An outside chance of 50bp exists. Sticky service prices underpinned continued strength in CPIF ex. energy, which surprised to the upside in the May data, easing by only 0.2pp to +8.2% y/y. Pre-commitment to the September rate decision is unlikely and 3.75% is seen as the likely cycle peak given the fragile state of the housing market.

Eurozone Economic Sentiment: A 0.5pp dip in eurozone economic sentiment to 96.0 is anticipated for June, as deteriorating demand conditions outpace tentatively abating inflationary concerns. The index moderated by 2.5 points to 96.5 in May after four months of the index largely stalling. On a positive note, inflation expectations should continue a downwards trajectory across sectors.

Germany Flash Inflation: Consensus is looking for a reacceleration in German harmonised inflation in June, bouncing by 0.5pp to +6.8% y/y, whilst prices accelerate by +0.4% m/m. This would be the first re-acceleration in the annualised print since the slight February uptick. Look out for the MNI projection following the slew of regional German CPI prints in the morning.

FRIDAY

UK GDP Second Estimate: The final Q1 GDP estimate is likely to be confirmed at +0.1% y/y. At the June meeting, the BOE continued to project headline GDP to be flat in Q2, rising to +0.25% in Q3, albeit noting that uncertainty regarding Q3 outlooks has risen.

France Flash Inflation: Completing the round of major eurozone flash prints ahead of the aggregate data will be France, whereby a further 0.6pp reduction to +5.4% y/y and a small +0.2% m/m uptick are pencilled in for June fHICP.

Eurozone Flash Inflation / Unemployment: Consensus estimates for euro-area flash CPI are for a deceleration to +5.6% y/y, from +6.1% y/y in May. This would be the lowest since February 2022, before the effects of the Russia-Ukraine war. A +0.3% m/m uptick in CPI is expected, following the flat May print. The projected 0.1pp uptick in core CPI to +5.4% y/y, reiterates the importance of further monetary tightening by the ECB. Unemployment is likely to hold steady at the record low of 6.5%, implying continued labour-market tightness and risk to upwards pressure on wages.

US Chicago PMI / Personal Income / Consumption: US income and spending is expected to lift again in May, by +0.4% m/m and +0.2% m/m respectively. The Chicago Business BarometerTM, produced with MNI, precedes the strongly correlated ISM index to be released on Monday. The June print follows string of contractionary prints, indicating that underlying growth momentum in the US manufacturing industry is faltering.

Source: Riksbank

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Flag	Country	Event
26/06/2023	0700/0900	**		ES	PPI
26/06/2023	0800/1000	***		DE	IFO Business Climate Index
26/06/2023	1000/1100	**		UK	CBI Distributive Trades
26/06/2023	1430/1030	**		US	Dallas Fed manufacturing survey
26/06/2023	1530/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill
26/06/2023	1530/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill
26/06/2023	1700/1300	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 2 Year Note
26/06/2023	1730/1930			EU	ECB Lagarde Opens ECB Forum
27/06/2023	2301/0001	*		UK	BRC Monthly Shop Price Index
27/06/2023	0600/0800	**		SE	PPI
27/06/2023	0800/1000	**		IT	ISTAT Business Confidence
27/06/2023	0800/1000	**		IT	ISTAT Consumer Confidence
27/06/2023	0800/1000			EU	ECB Lagarde Intro at ECB Forum
27/06/2023	0830/0930			UK	BOE Tenreyro Panels ECB Forum
27/06/2023	0830/1030			EU	ECB Panetta Panels ECB Forum
27/06/2023	0900/1000	*		UK	Index Linked Gilt Outright Auction Result
27/06/2023	0930/1130			EU	ECB Elderson Panels ECB Forum
27/06/2023	1200/1400			EU	ECB Schnabel Panels ECB Forum
27/06/2023	1230/0830	***		CA	CPI
27/06/2023	1230/0830	**		US	Durable Goods New Orders
27/06/2023	1255/0855	**		US	Redbook Retail Sales Index
27/06/2023	1300/0900	**		US	S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index
27/06/2023	1300/0900	**		US	FHFA Home Price Index
27/06/2023	1400/1000	***		US	New Home Sales
27/06/2023	1400/1000	***		US	Conference Board Consumer Confidence
27/06/2023	1400/1000	**		US	Richmond Fed Survey
27/06/2023	1430/1030	**		US	Dallas Fed Services Survey
27/06/2023	1530/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill
27/06/2023	1700/1300	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 5 Year Note
28/06/2023	0130/1130	***		AU	CPI Inflation Monthly
28/06/2023	0600/0800	*		DE	GFK Consumer Climate
28/06/2023	0600/1400	**		CN	MNI China Liquidity Suvey
28/06/2023	0645/0845	**		FR	Consumer Sentiment
28/06/2023	0800/1000	**		EU	M3
28/06/2023	0800/1000	**		IT	PPI
28/06/2023	0800/1000			EU	ECB de Guindos Panels ECB Forum
28/06/2023	0900/1100	***		IT	HICP (p)
28/06/2023	0900/1000	**		UK	Gilt Outright Auction Result
28/06/2023	0900/1100			EU	ECB de Guindos Panels ECB Forum
28/06/2023	1030/1130			UK	BOE Pill Panels ECB Forum
28/06/2023	1030/1230			EU	ECB Lane Panels ECB Forum
28/06/2023	1100/0700	**		US	MBA Weekly Applications Index
28/06/2023	1230/0830	**		US	Advance Trade, Advance Business Inventories
28/06/2023	1330/1430			UK	BOE Bailey Panels ECB Forum
28/06/2023	1330/1530			EU	ECB Lagarde Panels ECB Forum
28/06/2023	1430/1030	**		US	DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks
28/06/2023	1530/1130	**		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 2 Year Floating Rate Note
28/06/2023	1700/1300	**		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 7 Year Note
29/06/2023	2350/0850	*		JP	Retail sales (p)
29/06/2023	0130/1130	**		AU	Retail Trade
29/06/2023	0530/0730	***		DE	North Rhine Westphalia CPI
29/06/2023	0600/0800	**		SE	Retail Sales
29/06/2023	0700/0900	***		ES	HICP (p)
29/06/2023	0700/0900	**		SE	Economic Tendency Indicator
29/06/2023	0730/0930	**		SE	Riksbank Interest Rate
29/06/2023	0800/1000	***		DE	Bavaria CPI
29/06/2023	0830/0930	**		UK	BOE M4
29/06/2023	0830/0930	**		UK	BOE Lending to Individuals
29/06/2023	0900/1100	**		EU	EZ Economic Sentiment Indicator
29/06/2023	0900/1100	***		DE	Saxony CPI
29/06/2023	1200/1400	***		DE	HICP (p)
29/06/2023	1230/0830	**		US	Jobless Claims
29/06/2023	1230/0830	**		US	WASDE Weekly Import/Export
29/06/2023	1230/0830	*		CA	Payroll employment
29/06/2023	1230/0830	***		US	GDP
29/06/2023	1400/1000	**		US	NAR Pending Home Sales
29/06/2023	1430/1030	**		US	Natural Gas Stocks
29/06/2023	1600/1800			EU	ECB Lagarde Closing Remarks at ECB Forum
29/06/2023	1630/1730			UK	BOE Tenreyro Speech at SPE
30/06/2023	2330/0830	**		JP	Tokyo CPI
30/06/2023	2330/0830	*		JP	labor forcer survey
30/06/2023	0130/0930	***		CN	CFLP Manufacturing PMI
30/06/2023	0130/0930	**		CN	CFLP Non-Manufacturing PMI
30/06/2023	0600/0700	***		UK	GDP Second Estimate
30/06/2023	0600/0700	*		UK	Quarterly current account balance
30/06/2023	0630/0830	**		CH	Retail Sales
30/06/2023	0645/0845	***		FR	HICP (p)
30/06/2023	0645/0845	**		FR	PPI
30/06/2023	0645/0845	**		FR	Consumer Spending
30/06/2023	0700/0900	*		CH	KOF Economic Barometer
30/06/2023	0755/0955	**		DE	Unemployment
30/06/2023	0900/1100	***		EU	HICP (p)
30/06/2023	0900/1100	**		EU	Unemployment
30/06/2023	1230/0830	***		CA	Gross Domestic Product by Industry
30/06/2023	1230/0830	**		US	Personal Income and Consumption
30/06/2023	1342/0942	**		US	MNI Chicago PMI
30/06/2023	1400/1000	**		US	U. Mich. Survey of Consumers
30/06/2023	1430/1030	**		CA	BOC Business Outlook Survey
30/06/2023	1500/1100			CA	Finance Dept monthly Fiscal Monitor (expected)
30/06/2023	1600/1200	***		US	USDA Acreage - NASS
30/06/2023	1600/1200	**		US	USDA GrainStock - NASS