MNI GLOBAL WEEK AHEAD: Ukraine Remains Key Focus

As we move towards March and key policy meetings for the Federal Reserve, ECB and Bank of England, the ongoing tensions over the Ukraine remain the key market driver this week.

Flash PMIs Likely To Show Services Outperform (Monday)

The consensus anticipates overarching trends of marginal declines in manufacturing contrasted with positive growth in services across regions in the flash February PMI releases. Overarching service growth is expected to boost composite readings. All are seen remaining in expansive territory above the no-change mark of 50. The persistence of supply chain disruptions and inflationary pressures of supply bottlenecks remain a key topic across regions currently. As such, markets will be watching for clues on how the situation is developing.

France (0815 GMT): France will kick off the PMI round this morning, with services expected to strengthen to 53.5 in February from 53.1 last month. Manufacturing is expected to stabilise at 55.5, with growth expectations unchanged from January.

Germany (0830 GMT): Germany’s manufacturing PMI is seen softening to 59.4 in February, down from 59.8 in January which saw a slight recovery from the September-December slump. Services are expected to recover for the second consecutive month to 54.0 from 52.2, on the back of easing Covid cases. Input cost inflation continues to be problematic in the service sector.

Eurozone (0900 GMT): Eurozone manufacturing is expected to tick down to 58.6 in February, from the five-month high of 58.7 last month. Services are projected to grow 1.2 points to 52.3 this month, recovering from January which saw the weakest expansion since April 2021.

UK (0930 GMT): Consensus is forecasting a slowdown of manufacturing to 57.0 in February, down from 57.3 and an almost two-point boost to services up to 56.0, from 54.1 in January. The UK services PMI saw prices charged growth hit a survey record (over 25-year) high last month as firms passed on higher energy, transport and labour costs. Demand rebounded following an Omicron-induced slowdown.

Germany's IFO seen higher (Tuesday)

Following on from the PMI data, Germany's ifo survey will be published Tuesday, with an expectation of an uptick to 96.6, with strengthening industrial activity seen as a main driver as the supply chain issues of recent months gradually ease.

RBNZ Set for Further Hike (Wednesday)

With inflation and house prices continuing to show strong upside, the RBNZ is set to extend its tightening sequence, with analysts looking for another 25 bps rate hike to 1.00%

Former RBNZ Governor Arthur Grimes called for a 75 bps hike in a recent interview with MNI.

Weekly data forecasts can be found here:

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Flag	Country	Event
21/02/2022	0700/0800	**		DE	PPI
21/02/2022	0815/0915	**		FR	IHS Markit Services PMI (p)
21/02/2022	0815/0915	**		FR	IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (p)
21/02/2022	0830/0930	**		DE	IHS Markit Services PMI (p)
21/02/2022	0830/0930	**		DE	IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (p)
21/02/2022	0830/0930			SE	Riksbank minutes Feb 3 meet
21/02/2022	0900/1000	**		EU	IHS Markit Services PMI (p)
21/02/2022	0900/1000	**		EU	IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (p)
21/02/2022	0900/1000	**		EU	IHS Markit Composite PMI (p)
21/02/2022	0930/0930	***		UK	IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (flash)
21/02/2022	0930/0930	***		UK	IHS Markit Services PMI (flash)
21/02/2022	0930/0930	***		UK	IHS Markit Composite PMI (flash)
21/02/2022	1615/1115			US	Fed Governor Michelle Bowman
22/02/2022	0700/0700	***		UK	Public Sector Finances
22/02/2022	0900/1000	***		DE	IFO Business Climate Index
22/02/2022	0900/1000	**		IT	Italy Final HICP
22/02/2022	1045/1045			UK	BOE Ramsden speech at National Farmers Union
22/02/2022	1100/1100	**		UK	CBI Industrial Trends
22/02/2022	1330/0830	**		US	Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Index
22/02/2022	1355/0855	**		US	Redbook Retail Sales Index
22/02/2022	1400/0900	**		US	S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index
22/02/2022	1400/0900	**		US	FHFA Home Price Index
22/02/2022	1400/0900	**		US	FHFA Quarterly Price Index
22/02/2022	1400/1500	**		BE	BNB Business Sentiment
22/02/2022	1445/0945	***		US	IHS Markit Manufacturing Index (flash)
22/02/2022	1445/0945	***		US	IHS Markit Services Index (flash)
22/02/2022	1500/1000	***		US	Conference Board Consumer Confidence
22/02/2022	1500/1000	**		US	Richmond Fed Survey
22/02/2022	1630/1130	**		US	NY Fed Weekly Economic Index
22/02/2022	1630/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill
22/02/2022	1630/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill
22/02/2022	1800/1300	**		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 52 Week Bill
22/02/2022	1800/1300	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 2 Year Note
22/02/2022	2030/1530			US	Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic
23/02/2022	0030/1130	***		AU	Quarterly wage price index
23/02/2022	0030/1130	***		AU	Quarterly construction work done
23/02/2022	0100/1400	***		NZ	RBNZ official cash rate decision
23/02/2022	0700/0800	*		DE	GFK Consumer Climate
23/02/2022	0700/1500	**		CN	MNI China Liquidity Suvey
23/02/2022	0745/0845	**		FR	Manufacturing Sentiment
23/02/2022	0745/0845	**		FR	Consumer Sentiment
23/02/2022	0915/1015			EU	ECB Elderson Intro & panel participation at Eurofi Seminar
23/02/2022	0930/0930			UK	BOE Governor Bailey et al at TSC
23/02/2022	1000/1100	***		EU	HICP (f)
23/02/2022	1200/0700	**		US	MBA Weekly Applications Index
23/02/2022	1230/1330			EU	ECB de Guindos Q&A at El Español & Invertia symposium
23/02/2022	1330/0830	*		CA	Quarterly financial statistics for enterprises
23/02/2022	1500/1500			UK	BOE Tenreyro speaks at NIESR Institute lecture
23/02/2022	1630/1130	**		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 2 Year Floating Rate Note
23/02/2022	1800/1300	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 5 Year Note
23/02/2022	2030/1530			US	San Francisco Fed's Mary Daly
24/02/2022	0030/1130	*		AU	Private New Capex and Expected Expenditure
24/02/2022	0700/0800	**		SE	Unemployment
24/02/2022	0900/1000	*		IT	industrial orders
24/02/2022	1100/1100	**		UK	CBI Distributive Trades
24/02/2022	1315/1315			UK	BOE Bailey Intro at BEAR Research Conference
24/02/2022	1330/0830	**		US	Jobless Claims
24/02/2022	1330/0830	***		US	GDP (2nd)
24/02/2022	1330/0830	**		US	WASDE Weekly Import/Export
24/02/2022	1330/0830	*		CA	Payroll employment
24/02/2022	1500/1000	***		US	new home sales
24/02/2022	1530/1030	**		US	Natural Gas Stocks
24/02/2022	1600/1100	**		US	DOE weekly crude oil stocks
24/02/2022	1600/1700			EU	ECB Schnabel panels BOE BEAR conference on Unwinding QE
24/02/2022	1600/1600			UK	BOE Broadbent moderates panel at BEAR Conference on QE
24/02/2022	1600/1100			US	San Francisco Fed's Mary Daly
24/02/2022	1610/1110			US	Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic
24/02/2022	1700/1200			US	Cleveland Fed's Loretta Mester
24/02/2022	1800/1300	**		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 7 Year Note
25/02/2022	2330/0830	**		JP	Tokyo CPI
25/02/2022	0001/0001	**		UK	Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence
24/02/2022	0100/2000			US	Fed Governor Christopher Waller
25/02/2022	0700/0800	**		SE	PPI
25/02/2022	0745/0845	***		FR	HICP (p)
25/02/2022	0745/0845	**		FR	Consumer Spending
25/02/2022	0745/0845	***		FR	GDP (f)
25/02/2022	0745/0845	**		FR	PPI
25/02/2022	0800/0900	**		ES	PPI
25/02/2022	0900/1000	**		IT	ISTAT Business Confidence
25/02/2022	0900/1000	**		IT	ISTAT Consumer Confidence
25/02/2022	0900/1000	**		EU	M3
25/02/2022	0900/1000	*		NO	Norway Unemployment Rate
25/02/2022	1000/1100	*		EU	Business Climate Indicator
25/02/2022	1000/1100	**		EU	Economic Sentiment Indicator
25/02/2022	1000/1100	*		EU	Consumer Confidence, Industrial Sentiment
25/02/2022	1115/1215			EU	ECB Lagarde at Eurogroup Press Conference
25/02/2022	-			EU	ECB Lagarde & Panetta at Eurogroup meeting
25/02/2022	-			EU	ECB Lagarde & de Guindos at ECOFIN meeting
25/02/2022	1330/0830	**		US	durable goods new orders
25/02/2022	1330/0830	**		US	Personal Income and Consumption
25/02/2022	1330/0830	*		CA	Capital and repair expenditure survey
25/02/2022	1500/1000	**		US	NAR pending home sales
25/02/2022	1500/1000	***		US	Final Michigan Sentiment Index
25/02/2022	1600/1100			CA	Finance Dept monthly Fiscal Monitor (expected)
25/02/2022	1800/1800			UK	BOE Pill unwinding QE remarks at BEAR Conference
26/02/2022	1145/1245			EU	ECB de Guindos at ECOFIN press conference
26/02/2022	-			EU	ECB Lagarde & de Guindos at ECOFIN meeting
28/02/2022	0030/1130			AU	Business Indicators
28/02/2022	0030/1130	**		AU	Retail Trade
28/02/2022	0700/0800	***		SE	GDP
28/02/2022	0700/0800	**		SE	Retail Sales
28/02/2022	0700/0800	**		SE	Trade Data
28/02/2022	0800/0900	***		ES	HICP (p)
28/02/2022	0800/0900	***		CH	GDP
28/02/2022	0800/0900	*		CH	KOF Economic Barometer
28/02/2022	1130/1230			EU	ECB Panetta speech at EUI monetary policy debate
28/02/2022	1330/0830	**		US	advance trade, advance business inventories
28/02/2022	1330/0830	*		CA	Current account
28/02/2022	1445/0945	**		US	MNI Chicago PMI
28/02/2022	1530/1030	**		US	Dallas Fed manufacturing survey
28/02/2022	1530/1030			US	Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic
01/03/2022	2200/0900	**		AU	IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f)