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MNI Hawk-Dove Matrix Moves Up A Hawkish Notch (2/2)

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MNI’s Hawk-Dove Spectrum has effectively been moved up a notch across the board toward the “more hawkish” end for all participants since our March FOMC meeting preview.

  • Alberto Musalem became St Louis Fed President on April 2 and will be a 2025 voter, but we have not yet heard from him on his monetary policy views: for now, MNI places him alongside the “median” participant on our scale.
  • The March meeting minutes revealed little on the rate outlook that wasn’t already known from the Dot Plot and participants’ commentary – but the focus of the minutes was on balance sheet policy. The "vast majority" of FOMC participants judged it would be "prudent" to begin slowing the pace of runoff "fairly soon”, and participants "generally favored reducing the monthly pace of runoff by roughly half from the recent overall pace.”
  • Versus March, the description of inflation in April's Beige Book was relatively dovish with price increases described as “modest, on average”, versus “persisted during the reporting period” prior; economic growth was slightly more broad-based across districts; the characterization of employment growth was tweaked from “rose at a slight to modest pace in most districts” to “rose at a slight pace overall”. More details in our full FedSpeak PDF.

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MNI’s Hawk-Dove Spectrum has effectively been moved up a notch across the board toward the “more hawkish” end for all participants since our March FOMC meeting preview.

  • Alberto Musalem became St Louis Fed President on April 2 and will be a 2025 voter, but we have not yet heard from him on his monetary policy views: for now, MNI places him alongside the “median” participant on our scale.
  • The March meeting minutes revealed little on the rate outlook that wasn’t already known from the Dot Plot and participants’ commentary – but the focus of the minutes was on balance sheet policy. The "vast majority" of FOMC participants judged it would be "prudent" to begin slowing the pace of runoff "fairly soon”, and participants "generally favored reducing the monthly pace of runoff by roughly half from the recent overall pace.”
  • Versus March, the description of inflation in April's Beige Book was relatively dovish with price increases described as “modest, on average”, versus “persisted during the reporting period” prior; economic growth was slightly more broad-based across districts; the characterization of employment growth was tweaked from “rose at a slight to modest pace in most districts” to “rose at a slight pace overall”. More details in our full FedSpeak PDF.