MNI INSIGHT: Index Data Alerts BOJ View Over Exports Uptrend

--BOJ Vigilant, But Likely Await Q4 Data Before Outlook Adjustment

--BOJ: Japan Real Export Index -1.9% Q/Q in Q3 Vs +0.6% in Q2

--BOJ: Q3 Negative Index 1st Since Q1 2016

--BOJ: Japan Sep Real Export Index -5.5% M/M Vs. +2.2% in Aug

--MOF: Japan Sept Exports -1.2% Y/Y Vs +6.6% in Aug

By Hiroshi Inoue

     TOKYO (MNI) - Bank of Japan officials are increasingly vigilant over the

outlook for the nation's export sector, as the latest data indicated overseas

demand fell on a monthly basis for the first time in nearly two years, MNI

understands. 

     However, there is a degree of caution amongst central bank officials, who,

before reviewing their assessment that exports are on a rising trend, need to

see whether September's fall in exports came on the back of falling global

demand or because of supply factors following on from natural disasters across

parts of Japan in the third quarter. 

     If slower exports came as a result of impeded production after the natural

disasters, the BOJ will view the fall as temporary and likely to recover.

Officials are now focused on the September industrial output due out on Oct 31.

     It is unlikely the BOJ will make a drastic downward adjustment to the

"exports have been on an increasing trend" based purely on third quarter data,

which they see as skewed by the impact of natural disasters.

     Neither will they change the view that the underlying trend of exports

remains solid until they see export data for the October-December period, when

the irregularities of the third quarter can be better understood.

     --EXPORT INDEX DROPS

     The BOJ's real export index calculated based on the Ministry of Finance's

trade data fell 1.9% on quarter for the July-September period for the first drop

since the first quarter 2016 following a 0.6% gain in the April-June quarter and

a 0.5% rise in the January-March period.

     The September real export index fell 5.5% on month for the first drop in

three  months following a gain of 2.2% (revised from +2.1%) in August. 

     The BOJ will release the details of its real export indices for September

on Oct 23.

     --1ST EXPORT DROP

     The MOF data showed that Japanese exports posted a first year-on-year drop

in 22 months in September, indicating that global demand global demand for

Japanese goods might have been influenced by the trade dispute.

     Japanese exports fell 1.2% on year in September following +6.6% in August.

     "Exports will continue their increasing trend for the time being, as those

of capital goods and IT-related goods, in which Japan has a comparative

advantage, are likely to be firm with global production," the BOJ said in July. 

     BOJ officials are vigilant against the risk that global demand for Japanese

capital goods drops if a slowing global economy leads to a slowdown in capital

investment drops.

     The MOF data showed that exports of automobiles fell 4.7% on year in

September following a 5.3% gain in August and exports of construction machines

for capital investment overseas dropped 15.8% in September following a solid

24.5% gain in August.

     Exports to the U.S. saw a first drop in two months while those to the

European Union posted a first drop in 20 months. 

     Exports to China fell 1.7% on year in September, the first year-on-year

drop in seven months, led by weaker exports of semiconductors, telecommunication

equipment and optical equipment.

--MNI Tokyo Bureau; tel: +81 90-2175-0040; email: hiroshi.inoue@marketnews.com

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MMJBJI,MAJDS$,MMJBJ$,M$A$$$,M$J$$$,MT$$$$,MX$$$$]