MNI INTERVIEW: StatsCan Likely Keeping Flash GDP Estimates

Statistics Canada will likely continue producing flash GDP estimates rolled out during the pandemic, so long as the data remains credible and people want the faster rough data, the head of the federal statistics agency told MNI.

Preliminary GDP figures provide a good signal of the direction and magnitude of the economy’s momentum, Chief Statistician Anil Arora said in an interview. “There’s no sense in giving somebody perfect data right after they needed it,” Arora said.

The agency began publishing "advance estimate" figures during the pandemic, bringing it more in line with how the U.S. reports figures. For example, the latest official monthly report published Dec 22 was for October but included a paragraph at the end about November. Other flash estimates cover quarterly GDP and retail sales. (See MNI: Canada's Economy Ekes Out November Growth After Stalling)

Originally a way of tracking the economy lurching in and out of Covid lockdowns, investors have cheered the more timely figures. Flash estimates now often end up as the consensus forecast ahead of the official monthly release, and they can lead market trading and commentary after the figures are published.

VACANCIES AND SOFT LANDING

“We are constantly looking at the difference between the flash and what was the official estimate, it’s actually pretty good, it triangulates quite nicely,” Arora said. “The second thing is that our users have said please keep it.”

In an era where traditional surveys are under pressure from the decline of phones and growing public distrust, Arora said StatsCan is adapting with more digital options for respondents. The flagship Labour Force Survey boosted the sample size by 25%, helping with a push for more data across racial and social groups.

“We spend more money, we knock on doors more, we drive more, it costs us more," he said. “We’re just always searching for new methods, and new ways within which we can connect with Canadians.”

There's a fairly consistent story about the job market coming from other series such as payrolls and vacancies, he said. “That number went up to about a million, and when you look at the ratio of the jobs to the number of vacant (positions) that has shifted in a big way. Some have said the kind of the soft landing is related to the fact that we had these high vacancies and now we’ve seen that drop to 700,000 or so.” (See MNI: Canada Seen As Resilient To Rate Hikes- Finance Memo)

'FUEL THAT POLICY DEBATE'

More detailed job reports demonstrate how StatsCan is nudging towards shaping public debate in an era of misinformation by going beyond the basic numbers, Arora said. Staff who in the past were kept in the background now host Ask Me Anything sessions on Reddit and created the "Eh Sayers" podcast. (See MNI INTERVIEW: Canada Job Data Keep Defying Gloom-Govt Analyst)

“It’s a culture change within this organization,” said Arora. “What we want to make sure is that we fuel that policy debate, we fuel a vigorous conversation about what is the economy doing.”

More “disaggregated” data showing say unemployment among Black Canadians is one of way of fostering debate, he said. It's important to add that value even if it brings criticism because “to be able to see something and show it necessarily allows the country to ask better questions,” he said. (See MNI INTERVIEW: Trudeau Must Fix Housing Without Fanning Prices)

“We look at every major release as a team and make sure we that we don’t just look at the accuracy of the numbers, but we also say is the interpretation going to be helpful,” he said. “We absolutely make sure that we don’t cross the boundaries for providing the necessary context within which you can use that information to in some way giving policy advice."

Arora retires from StatsCan March 31 in line with legislation he helped shape giving the chief statistician more autonomy and a fixed term approved by cabinet, and he left open the prospect of other work. “I will always be a thankful Canadian for what this country has given me, as somebody who came here when I was eleven,” he said. “There’s probably another chapter somewhere.”