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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessMNI INTERVIEW1: Payrolls Take "Turn For Worse"-RBA's Harper
Australia's payroll data looks to have taken a "turn for the worse" in July, with a fresh wave of Covid-19 virus infections in Melbourne posing a "significant danger" to Australia's economy, Reserve Bank of Australia board member Ian Harper told MNI Thursday.
The latest wave threatens to derail a recovery which, according to RBA Governor Philip Lowe, saw the labour market "turn the corner" in June with employment increasing by 210,000, to pull back a quarter of the previous two months' losses.
Speaking in a private capacity and not as an RBA Board member, Harper agreed that while the payroll data continues to indicate a recovery from the lows of April and May, it "appears to have taken a turn for the worse" in July.
SECOND WAVE
Even if a recent second wave of virus infections is contained to the state of Victoria, "it will slow the national recovery given the relative size of the Victorian economy," said Harper, who is also dean of the Melbourne Business School and co-dean of the University of Melbourne's Faculty of Business and Economics.
"This is a significant danger the more widely it spreads," he told MNI in an interview, in which he also referred to the problem posed by the appreciating Australian dollar.
"Most 'downside' scenarios, including the RBA's published in the May Statement on Monetary Policy, show a second wave will significantly deepen the downturn and slow the recovery," he said.
The Victorian situation threatens to undermine the confidence which is key to the recovery as a driver of consumption and investment, he said, although he added that the latest closely-watched NAB sentiment survey data had been "very encouraging."
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.