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MNI: Italy Readies for Vote; Slow Process To Form Next Govt

MNI (London)
--Current Government Will Continue To Function
By Silvia Machetti
     ROME (MNI) - Italy faces a period of instability ahead of the March 4
elections, but the next few months will not see a void in government, senior
sources told Market News.
     "This current government of Premier Paolo Gentiloni will still be
functioning until the next one is formed. It retains all its powers to approve
urgent decrees and carry on with all regular governing," a senior government
official told Market News.
     Last Friday, Italy's head of  state, Preisdent Sergio Mattarella, announced
the dissolution of the current parliament, officially triggering a 60-day
election campaign. 
     The date for the general election was set for March 4, with the new
parliament expected to hold its first session on March 23.
     The source said it was crucial to send out a positive message of
"continuity" despite the limbo of the election campaign, in order to reassure
investors and markets that Italy will still have a fully functioning government.
     However, the journey from the current to the next government will not be
easy, or "automatic", warned Sergio Fabbrini, head of the School of Government
at Rome-based LUISS University.
     "There are high risks that the ballot boxes on March 4 might not deliver a
solid majority able to ensure governability. If leading parties fail to form
alliances or reach agreements, we'll need a second vote straight away," said
Fabbrini.
     Analysts are worried that before a new cabinet takes office, with a
supporting functioning parliament able to pass laws and reforms, the country
could face several months of paralysis.
     According to Italy's constitution, a new government can only be formed once
parliament reconvenes and only after the Senate and Lower House appoint leaders.
Mattarella will then hold a round of talks to judge whether a ruling majority
exists. 
     Should there be no support for a new government, a second vote would be
required.
     Italy's new proportional voting system makes it impossible for any party to
win the required amount of votes to govern without support, thus the need to
form alliances.
     Analysts see many potential coalition scenarios. Former premier Silvio
Berlusconi, the centre-right coalition's leading candidate, recently said that
if the March 4 vote fails to produce a settled outcome, a second ballot should
take place, but only after a further period of campaigning.
     Berlusconi even suggested extending premier Gentiloni's mandate as needed
until a strong government can be formed and all institutions return to full work
mode. This could be Mattarella's most likely option if the first vote falls
short.
     Talk is gathering pace suggesting PM Gentiloni will get the chance of a
second term at the helm of a 'temporary' cabinet between a first and second
vote, possibly beyond that. 
     The premier appears to be the best option at present to stave off a
potential political crisis given his high poll ratings. His approval rate
appears to be quite high, even among opposition party supporters.
     Gentiloni has so far declined to comment on his possible re-appointment
were the Democrats to turn out as winners at the March 4 elections
     Former premier and frontrunner Matteo Renzi has acknowledged that his
support has fallen over the last two years, saying he would be willing to step
back for the sake of the country were Gentiloni to be the only figure able to
unite different parties in a governing majority.
     The government source, despite downplaying such a scenario, did not
completely rule it out.
     "Gentiloni is very close and loyal to Renzi, who placed him at the head of
the government in 2015 to continue his job for him. Gentiloni has always
followed Renzi's strategy, implementing all the crucial reforms, and has done
whatever is best for this country when the need has arisen. He will continue to
do so no matter what will happen in March," said the official.
--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: M$E$$$,M$I$$$,M$X$$$,MC$$$$,MI$$$$,MT$$$$,MX$$$$,MGX$$$]
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 | les.commons@marketnews.com

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