Pandemic restriction were lifted on March 21, setting the stage for a Q2 rebound.
Japan's economy likely contracted in the first quarter of this year on weak private consumption and net exports, economists surveyed by MNI predicted.
A survey showed preliminary Q1 GDP fell 0.4% on quarter, or an annualised 1.8% drop after positive fourth quarter growth in 2021, but which was revised down. First quarter forecasts ranged from -0.1% to -0.7% q/q, or -0.2% to -2.6% at an annualised pace. The data also represents the final quarter of Japan's past fiscal year ended March 31.
Private consumption eased 0.5% q/q for the first drop in two quarters because of quasi-emergency measures to restrict economic activity on the back of the spread of Covid-19 infections, economists said, noting the many restrictions were lifted on March 21.
Consumption forecasts for Q1 ranged from -0.1% to +1.4%. However, economists expect Japan’s economy to grow in Q2 as private consumption rebounds, See: MNI BRIEF: BOJ Raises FY Inflation View To 1.9%, Lowers GDP.
Net exports of goods and services -- exports minus imports -- are expected to have shown a negative 0.3 percentage point hit to domestic output.
The Cabinet Office releases preliminary GDP for the January-March quarter at 0850 JST on Wednesday, May 18 (2350 GMT on Tuesday, May 17).