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MNI Market Analysis: Australia: Surveys Could Give RBA Reason To Slow Hike Pace

Executive Summary:

  • The nascent peaking of labour and other cost pressures in the NAB business survey could give the RBA the reason its needs to hike by only 25bp at the October meeting but their elevated level, the apparent trough in consumer sentiment and solid business confidence may be enough for another 50bp move.
  • Thursday’s August employment and September inflation expectations data are next on the agenda and likely to be just as important as today’s surveys in shaping views on the next RBA meeting.
  • The market has around +32bp priced in for the October 4 meeting or 28% for a 50bp hike, which has been unaffected by today’s data.
  • See the full piece here: MNI Aust conf 130922 (2).pdf

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