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MNI NBH Preview - October 2021: NBH Could Face Off Public Enemy With 30bps Hike

Hungary Central Bank

Executive Summary:

  • The NBH could surprise the market with a 30bps this week.
  • Consensus is expecting a 15bps hike.
  • A 30bps hike would ease the volatility on the long end of the interest rate curve.
  • Weak HUF could also continue to support inflation expectations.

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NBH CB Prev - Oct 19.pdf


The National Bank of Hungary (NBH) could surprise the market with a 30bps hike on October 19 to curb inflationary pressures, which are expected to remain elevated until at least the end of this year. Market consensus is expecting the NBH to maintain the pace of 15bps this week, which would lift the policy rate up to 1.80%, after the NBH decided to slow down the pace of the tightening cycle in September.

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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