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MNI Norges Bank Preview - Mar '24: Cuts Still Some Way Off

The Norges Bank are unanimously expected to leave the policy rate on hold at 4.50%. Main interest will lie in the updated policy rate path projection

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The Norges Bank are unanimously expected to leave the policy rate on hold at 4.50%.

  • Main interest will lie in the updated policy rate path projection within the March Monetary Policy Report, which will inform the guidance around how long rates will be held at current levels.
  • The MNI Markets Team expects a small downward revision to the rate path, with key variables tracking below the December MPR forecasts.
  • This will likely see the first full 25bp rate cut brought forward a little earlier in Q4 2024 than the current rate path indicates.
  • However, we do not expect this be be accompanied with any pivot away from recent guidance, with the Norges Bank’s tilt still leaning hawkish on the margin

For our full preview, including a summary of 17 sell-side views, see the PDF below:

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The Norges Bank are unanimously expected to leave the policy rate on hold at 4.50%.

  • Main interest will lie in the updated policy rate path projection within the March Monetary Policy Report, which will inform the guidance around how long rates will be held at current levels.
  • The MNI Markets Team expects a small downward revision to the rate path, with key variables tracking below the December MPR forecasts.
  • This will likely see the first full 25bp rate cut brought forward a little earlier in Q4 2024 than the current rate path indicates.
  • However, we do not expect this be be accompanied with any pivot away from recent guidance, with the Norges Bank’s tilt still leaning hawkish on the margin

For our full preview, including a summary of 17 sell-side views, see the PDF below:

Keep reading...Show less