MNI POLICY: Fed's Logan: IOER Hike Would Offset Falling Rates

The Federal Reserve will offset downward pressure on its benchmark short-term interest rate by hiking the interest rate on excess reserves if needed, New York Fed's market chief Lorie Logan said Tuesday, noting that the extraordinary factors supporting market rates this year are likely to moderate.

"If undue downward pressure on rates were to emerge, the Federal Reserve could adjust IOER higher to lift overnight rates," she said in remarks prepared for the Money Marketeers of New York University. The IOER is currently set at 10 bps, well below the top of the Fed's target range of 25 bps. The effective fed funds rate has hovered around 9 bps for the past month.

"Even if this downward pressure persisted, the (overnight reverse repo rate) would maintain a strong floor by providing an alternative investment for money market participants and, if needed, by reducing the quantity of reserves held by the banking system to relieve pressure on bank balance sheets," she added. The ON RRP rate is currently set at 0.

A jump in the Treasury's account at the Fed and massive bill issuance, as well as domestic banks' desire to hold higher reserves this year for precautionary reasons during the pandemic are "contributing to rates continuing to trade near IOER" this year, Logan said.

That the effective fed funds rate has traded so close to IOER is unusual and caused by a shift in banks' reserve management practices and higher Treasury issuances to fund fiscal stimulus, she said.

"It seems likely that some of the factors that have been supporting rates this year -- the increase in the (Treasury General Account), highly elevated bill issuance, and domestic banks' apparent comfort with reserve growth to date -- will moderate or reverse," putting downward pressure on market rates, she said.

"Even if more persistent downward pressure on rates emerges, we are confident that the Federal Reserve has tools to ensure effective control over the federal funds rate and other short-term interest rates across the broad range of potential outcomes," Logan said.