MNI POLICY: Probability Of Xi-Trump G20 Meeting 50-70%

By Iris Ouyang

     BEIJING (MNI) - There is a "50% to 70% chance" of a bilateral meeting

between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump at the G20

Summit in Argentina next month, a researcher at China's top planning body told

MNI in an interview.

     The meeting, if it goes ahead, would be the first between the two since

late last year, before Trump authorized punitive tariffs which so far cover $250

billion in imports from China.

     It would send too negative a message if the leaders of the two largest

economies were to miss an opportunity for dialogue in Buenos Aires, said Wang

Haifeng, Director of International Trade and Investment at the Chinese Academy

of Macroeconomic Research, run by the National Development and Reform

Commission.

     A meeting could produce a statement expressing willingness to seek a

solution to the two nations' trade dispute, although further negotiations would

be necessary afterwards, Wang said.

     --POSITIVE IMPACT

     So far China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs has not directly commented on

the meeting. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said this month that it is up to

Trump to decide whether to see Xi.

     Li Wei, head of the Americas and Oceania Research Department at a Ministry

of Commerce think tank, said a Xi-Trump meeting could have a positive impact.

     "The highest-level leaders reaching an agreement or consensus can relieve

tensions and conflicts that ordinary officials can't solve," Li said.

     Regardless of whether Xi meets Trump, the two sides are expected to restore

constructive dialogue in the first or second quarter next year, Wang predicted.

     But China is likely to remain cautious, given what it regards as

inconsistent policy signals from Washington.

     "I don't think a meeting of the two leaders, if it happens, can end the

trade war," Mei Xinyu, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of International

Trade and Economic Cooperation under the Ministry of Commerce, told MNI."But I

hope such a summit could stop China-U.S. relations and trade frictions from

deteriorating into a full-blown cold war." 

--MNI Beijing Bureau; +86 (10) 8532-5998; email: iris.ouyang@marketnews.com

--MNI Beijing Bureau; +86 10 8532 5998; email: william.bi@mni-news.com

--MNI London Bureau; +44208-865-3829; email: Jason.Webb@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MAQDS$,M$A$$$,M$Q$$$,MC$$$$,MI$$$$]