MNI POLITICAL RISK - A High-Stakes Presidential Debate

Executive Summary:

• The first presidential between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump will take place this evening at 21:00 ET 02:00 BST. The debate is likely to attract upward of 50 million viewers and, if there is no second debate, could be the last major opportunity to swing wavering voters as early voting gets underway later this month.
• Harris comes into the debate riding a wave of enthusiasm that has recalibrated the race after President Biden’s faltering candidacy. Harris has a slight lead in the national polls, and all seven likely battleground states are within the polling margin of error. However, recent surveys have hinted at a plateau in Harris’ momentum and raised some concerns over the risk-averse strategy employed by her team.
• Harris must convince voters she occupies the centre ground and rebut Trump’s arguments that her moderate policy pledges belie a politician who is, at her core, more liberal than voters in the key battleground states.
• The equation for Trump is relatively straightforward: He must associate Harris with the unpopular policies of the Biden administration and impress on voters that Harris is responsible for an economy that has left many Americans feeling poorer than they did during his presidency.
• House Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-LA) plan to fund the government appears on the brink of collapse.
• Poll of the Day: Inflation, health care, and border security are the issues voters most want to see raised at the debate.

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MNIPOLRISKUSDaily100924.pdf