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MNI Political Risk Analysis - Colombia Election Preview

COLOMBIA

Colombia holds the first round of its presidential election on Sunday 29 May in a vote that is seen as a key test of the country’s democratic institutions and could result in a major shift in local and regional foreign policy.

  • In this election preview we include a brief on the main candidates, an outline of how the election works, a chartpack of the latest opinion polling, technical analysis of the Colombian peso, scenario analysis with MNI Political Risk team’s outcome probabilities, and a round-up of sell-side reports on the election.
  • Leftist candidate Gustavo Petro is seen as overwhelmingly likely to make the second round run-off on 19 June, with a first-round victory likely out of his reach. He remains the overall favourite for the Colombian presidency.
  • The identity of the second-placed candidate will be crucial. A win for conservative candidate Federico Gutierrez raises the prospect of a Petro presidency, given Gutierrez’s poor second-round polling. However, should outsider populist candidate Rodolfo Hernandez make the second round against Petro polls show that contest as too close to call at present.
  • A win for Petro would be the first for a leftist candidate in Colombia and could see major policy shifts in terms of foreign policy, and the economy.
  • Please find the full article here: https://marketnews.com/mni-political-risk-analysis...


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