MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS-Conte Resigns, Return On The Cards

Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte has offered his resignation to President Sergio Mattarella this morning in a move that has numerous potential outcomes and remains a risky gamble for the PM.

Key Takeaways:

• Giuseppe Conte resigns as prime minister with his government set to lose a vote in the Senate later this week.
• Conte has a good chance of being handed back the mandate to seek to form the next government given few others are likely to be able to put together a majority administration.
• Resignation gamble could end several ways:
  • Re-formation of Conte government with defectors from opposition.
  • Formation of new or technocratic government without Conte at its head.
  • Formation of a national unity government for the duration of the pandemic.
  • No government can be formed with snap elections necessary.
• If snap elections are called, opinion polls at present show the coalition of right wing parties led by former Deputy PM Matteo Salvini's League on course to secure a majority.

The resignation comes not as an end to Conte's political career, but as an attempt to re-form a majority governing coalition while also avoiding the likelihood of a parliamentary defeat. Later this week, the Senate is due to vote on the annual report into reforms of the justice system. At present Conte's government would lose this vote following the withdrawal of lawmakers from former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi's centrist Italia Viva (VI) party that saw confidence votes take place in parliament last week.

Full article PDF attached below:

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS-Conte Resigns, Return On The Cards.pdf