MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – France Election Preview
President Emmanuel Macron gambles in calling snap legislative elections following strong result for National Rally in European Parliament elections, risks RN's Jordan Bardella or figure from the leftist NFP alliance becoming PM in major blow to president's authority
In a decision that will have significant repercussions for domestic politics, as well as on the wider European continent, President Emmanuel Macron has called a snap legislative election to take place on 30 June and 7 July. Macron called the election after the right-wing nationalist Rassembelement National (National Rally, RN) won a comfortable victory in France’s election to the European Parliament on 9 June, saying in a national address that “I’ve decided to give you back the choice of our parliamentary future through the vote. I am therefore dissolving the National Assembly.”
- In this preview, we have an explainer of the somewhat complex electoral system used for the National Assembly; outline the main political alliances and parties contesting the vote; provide analysis of various election scenarios with assigned probabilities; write on the outlook for France's financial and credit markets and the country's power and energy sectors; assemble a chartpack of the latest opinion polling and betting market predictions for the election; and select the key views from a host of analysts regarding the implications of the contest.
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