MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS-Hungary Faces EUCO Showdown

National leaders from the 27 member states of the European Union meet for a special European Council (EUCO) summit on 1 February. The meeting comes as the result of a stand-off between the Union and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán over Budapest’s vetoing of a multi-billion-euro package of aid and financial assistance for Ukraine. The package is intended to be supplied over several years, with funds coming from the EU’s multiannual financial framework (MFF, the long-term budget).

Orbán refused to back the package in the December 2023 EUCO summit, insisting that Kyiv must apply for the funding on a yearly basis to ensure proper EU oversight of where the money is going. Many see the main reason for the veto being unrelated to the war in Ukraine. Instead, they see the veto as Orbán seeking to force the EU’s hand in unfreezing EUR23bn in funds allocated to Budapest but held back by the European Commission regarding rule-of-law concerns. Much to the chagrin of some member states, the Commission unfroze around EUR10bn in December having ruled that substantial efforts had been made in reforming the Hungarian judiciary. Opponents argued that this amounted to the EU giving in to Orbán’s ‘blackmail’.

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