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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Executive Summary
- Draghi government collapses as warring factions within his broad coalition refused to back down when threatened with the PM’s resignation.
- Snap elections confirmed following dissolution of parliament on 21 July, with 18 September mooted as a potential date by Italian media outlets. Autumn is usually a time the government would be putting together next year’s budget, a timeline that a September election could disrupt.
- Opinion polls show that a right-wing coalition involving the nationalist Brothers of Italy (Fratelli d’Italia, FdI), the populist League, and centre-right Forza Italia is in pole position to form the next government.
- The loss of Draghi, seen as a pragmatic and non-ideological leader, comes at a difficult time with inflation rising, energy prices spiking, and concerns about EU unity regarding sanctions towards Russia.
Full article PDF attached below:
MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS-Early Election In Italy As PM Draghi Resigns.pdf
Chart 1. Italy General Election Opinion Polling by Party, % and 6-Poll Moving Average
Source: SWG, Piepoli, Tecne, Euromedia, Termometro Politico, BiDiMedia, Ipsos, Demopolis, EMG, Noto, Winpoll, Demos & Pi, Index, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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