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MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS-Spain PM Eyeing Madrid Vote Result

Regional elections in the Spanish capital on 4 May threaten to deal a significant blow to the federal government of Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, with the high-profile and bitter election looking likely to result in the election of a right-wing coalition involving the far-right nationalist Vox party.

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Madrid's regional assembly election, to be held on 4 May, has turned into one of the most bitter, ill-tempered, and rhetorically violent campaigns Spain has seen in decades. Bullets and death threats have been posted to the leader of a left-wing party, the head of the Civil Guard, and the Spanish interior minister, while highly-charged terms such as 'communist' and 'fascist' have re-entered the political lexicon less than 50 years since the end of the Franco regime.

Main Takeaways:
  • The conservative People's Party are likely to need support from right-wing nationalist Vox to form a regional government after the election.
  • Strong results for PP could give regional president Isabel Díaz Ayuso a major boost, with media speculation mounting that she may seek to launch a leadership campaign for the PP at the federal level.
  • Poor results for the PSOE and Podemos would come as a blow to the federal government, with Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez and Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias both investing significant political capital into the Madrid campaign.

Incumbent regional president, Isabel Díaz Ayuso, from the centre-right People's Party (PP) has fought the campaign on a platform of limiting controls on social and economic life due to the pandemic, a strategy that looks set to pay off with opinion polls showing the PP leading comfortably. However, the party looks set to fall short of an overall majority and as such would require a coalition partner.

Chart 1. Potential Composition of Assembly of Madrid Based on Average Opinion Polling (24-30 Apr), Seats

Source: ElectoPanel, SocioMetrica, Demoscopia y Servicios, Hamalgama Metrica, SW Democscopia, SyM Consulting, NC Report, Celeste-Tel, DYM, GAD3, MNI

Full article PDF attached below:

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS-Right-Wing Coalition Set To Win Bitter Madrid Election.pdf