MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS-UK Regional Election Outlook

Voters in three of the United Kingdom's four constituent nations go to the polling stations today, Thursday 6 May, with Scotland and Wales holding elections to their devolved national parliaments. Meanwhile, across England, elections for metropolitan mayors, police and crime commissioners, and local councils take place. The vote is being dubbed 'super Thursday' as a huge number of council seats are up for grabs, with those up for election in 2021 being joined by those elections (such as for the London mayoralty) that were originally scheduled for May 2020 but delayed due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

In this article we examine some of the more important contests taking place in the context of UK politics, both with regards to the fortunes of national political leaders as well as the unity of the UK as a whole. At the end of the article we provide a run-down of expected declaration times for the major contests.

Full article PDF attached below:

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS-UK Regional Election Outlook.pdf

Key Timings:

It should be noted that the timings are broad estimates and due to the COVID-19 pandemic counts could take longer than would usually be the case with fewer counters in place at counting centres.

• Thursday 6 May: 2200BST – Polls close across England, Scotland and Wales. No exit polls will be published.
• Friday 7 May: 0200BST – First English council election results begin to come in. Early declarations expected in Labour strongholds in north east and north west England.
• Friday 7 May: 0500BST – Declaration in the Hartlepool by-election expected around this time. Doncaster mayoral election result could come as well, with Labour likely to hold on to power. Tight council races in Dudley, Stockport, and Nuneaton and Bedworth also expected.
• Friday 7 May: 0900BST – Counting starts for Scottish and Welsh Parliaments, half of the London Assembly, and 79 English councils.
• Friday 7 May: 1200BST – More council results due to come in in greater numbers, including Manchester, Burnley, and Bolton. The first Scottish parliament election results due to be declared, including First Minister Nicolas Sturgeon's Glasgow Southside seat.
• Friday 7 May: 1500BST – First results from the Welsh Parliament due to be declares, with the marginal Llanelli and Wrexham up early. Initial seven results from London Assembly elections and a much larger wave of English council elections due to be declared, including the closely watched races in Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire, and Trafford.
• Friday 7 May: 1700BST – Tees Valley mayoral contest due to be declared in a major test of the Conservatives' ability to hold onto areas of north east England. Marginals Caerphilly and Vale of Clwyd in Wales will post their results as will a substantial number of English councils – including counties such as Norfolk, Essex, and Cambridgeshire where all council seats are up for election – with around 40 declarations expected in 90 mins.
• Friday 7 May: 1900BST – Final results from the Welsh parliament due to come in, showing what form of coalition will be required if Labour are to hold onto power there. 46 out of Scotland's 129 seats should have declared, giving an indication as to the strength of the SNP's results. No counting expected overnight.
• Saturday 8 May: 1200BST – First of the 35 English councils counting on Saturday due to come through, including closely contested Lancashire. Liverpool city, North Tyneside and West of England mayoral contests due to come through, as should two more Scottish parliament seats in the form of Conservative Aberdeenshire West and SNP Perthshire South.
• Saturday 8 May: 1500BST – One of the major contests of the election due to declare in the form of the West Midlands mayoralty, with Conservative incumbent Andy Street facing Labour challenger Liam Byrne. The remaining portion of London Assembly seats due to declare, as will around 20 English councils including Hartlepool, Kirklees, Gosport, Portsmouth and Milton Keynes.
• Saturday 8 May: 1800BST – Result from the largest single election of the cycle due to come through in the form of the London mayoralty. Incumbent Labour mayor Sadiq Khan due to win either in the first round or comfortably in the second round against Conservative challenger Shaun Bailey. Final seats from Scotland due to declare to show whether the SNP has been able to secure a majority of seats to further its pro-independence cause.
• Sunday 9 May: 1200BST – A small amount of English councils due to declare, with the minority Liberal Democrat-run St Albans and Oxfordshire, where the Conservatives are seeking to gain a majority.
• Sunday 9 May: 1600BST – Some of the first police and crime commissioner races due to declare, as will the mayoralty of West Yorkshire. There, incumbent Labour Batley and Spen MP Tracy Brabin is favourite to win. She has announced that if she does emerge victorious she will give up her seat in the House of Commons, triggering a by-election. Final English council elections due to call their results.
• Monday 10 May – Final results of the election due to be revealed with remaining police and crime commissioners set to be declared.