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MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – United Kingdom Election Preview

Change in government seen as overwhelmingly likely in 4 July election, with centre-left Labour party of Sir Keir Starmer on course to take power after 14 years in opposition, PM Rishi Sunak's Conservatives look set for what could prove a record defeat

Political RiskPolitical Market News

The United Kingdom will hold a snap general election on Thursday, 4 July, in a contest that is almost certain to result in a change of government. The centre-right Conservative party has governed either alone or in coalition for the past 14 years under a succession of five different prime ministers. PM Rishi Sunak shocked observers by calling an unexpectedly early vote, with most predicting the election would come in the autumn, given that opinion polling has for some time shown the main opposition centre-left Labour party of Sir Keir Starmer is almost certain to win a sizeable majority in the House of Commons.

In this preview we include a briefing on the UK's electoral system and the main parties contesting the vote, analysis of the various likely post-election scenarios with assigned probabilities, an overview of the financial market and credit sector impact of the election, a chartpack of opinion polling and betting market probabilities, and analyst views from 14 sell-side outfits.

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The United Kingdom will hold a snap general election on Thursday, 4 July, in a contest that is almost certain to result in a change of government. The centre-right Conservative party has governed either alone or in coalition for the past 14 years under a succession of five different prime ministers. PM Rishi Sunak shocked observers by calling an unexpectedly early vote, with most predicting the election would come in the autumn, given that opinion polling has for some time shown the main opposition centre-left Labour party of Sir Keir Starmer is almost certain to win a sizeable majority in the House of Commons.

In this preview we include a briefing on the UK's electoral system and the main parties contesting the vote, analysis of the various likely post-election scenarios with assigned probabilities, an overview of the financial market and credit sector impact of the election, a chartpack of opinion polling and betting market probabilities, and analyst views from 14 sell-side outfits.

Keep reading...Show less