MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – US Daily Brief 04-02-22

Executive summary:

• 10:45 ET 15:45 GMT: President Joe Biden will deliver remarks on the January jobs report.
• Yesterday US lawmakers from both sides of the aisle were briefed on the Ukraine crisis by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin. After the briefing the mood in Washington was decidedly more hawkish. The most significant development was the circulation of intelligence suggesting that Moscow is planning to use a false flag operation in Eastern Ukraine as a pretence for invasion. We suggested last month that two pathways could allow Democrats to justify applying pre-emptive sanctions. The first is alleged cyber-attacks already committed by the Russian Federation on critical Ukrainian infrastructure. The second is verifiable evidence of a Russian false flag operation. More discussions are taking place today and it is likely that the latest intelligence report, which has been repeated by top Biden administration officials, will allow for a bipartisan agreement on sanctions.
• President Biden yesterday spoke in New York City attacking perceptions that the Democrats are soft on gun violence and crime. Biden: ‘We're not about defunding. We're about funding'.
• It is likely that a stronger position on crime is going to be a key policy pivot ahead of November's midterms. An IPSOS report has shown that crime is the third most pressing issue facing Americans.

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – US Daily Brief 04-02-22 .pdf