MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – US Daily Brief 09-02-22

Executive Summary:

• EU High Representative of Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell Fontelles has said that the Iran JCPOA nuclear talks in Vienna are ‘…in the last meters of the game’ but there is a lack of consistency in Washington about the appropriate strategy to contain Iran’s nuclear program. Special Envoy for Iran Robert Malley will testify before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee at 10:00 ET 15:00 GMT.
• A restoration of the Iran JCPOA deal could add 1.6mn b/d of Iranian crude to global supply. If talks are successfully concluded, US diplomats believe that Iran's full reintegration in global oil markets could happen by late 2022 or early 2023.
• The House voted 272-162 to pass a stopgap measure to extend federal government funding until March 11. The temporary funding bill will now move to the Senate where Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) has promised to ‘take it up quickly and in time’ to avert a government shutdown on February 18.
• Senators Robert Menendez (D-NJ) and James Risch (R-ID) said they are feeling more confident about getting a deal done on sanctions. Menendez and Risch believe that German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will support Nordstream 2 sanctions but is constrained by German domestic political tradition from speaking publicly. Scholz will meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin next week and the US believe he will be firmer on the prospect on sanctions in private than he has been in public.

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – US Daily Brief 09-02-22 .pdf