MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – US Daily Brief 25-02-22

Executive Summary:

• The Russian invasion of Ukraine has entered its second day. Russia has yet to deploy approximately 50 percent of ground forces but so far the Ukrainian resistance has been robust. The British government said that Ukraine’s military had presented ‘fierce resistance across all axes of Russia’s advance and it was unlikely that Russia had achieved its planned Day 1 military objectives.’
• At time of writing multiple sources have reported that Moscow has approached Ukraine for high level talks in Minsk to resolve the conflict.

• Biden yesterday gave an address to the nation and outlined the second tranche of US sanctions against the Russian Federation. Notably, Biden did not announce sanctions on Russian oil and gas sales and declined to sanction SWIFT, suggesting that European allies did not support the measure.
• There will be criticism over the lack of movement on Russian oil and gas. Energy sales from Russia to the West can continue to provide Russia with an estimated at USD$600 million per day.
• Today's Daily Brief outline's the full package of sanctions.

• White House sources suggest that President Biden has made his selection for the Supreme Court and an announcement is expected today. The frontrunner for nomination is Ketanji Brown Jackson.

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – US Daily Brief 25-02-22 .pdf