MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – US Daily Brief 25-03-22

Executive Summary:

• US President Joe Biden has arrived in Poland for the final leg of his European trip. Biden's meeting with his Polish counterpart, Andrzej Duda will focus on the refugee crisis and the potential for further militarisation of the Polish border. Biden will be joined by Secretary of State Antony Blinken.
• Biden appeared to contradict the White House, and his own, position on Russia sanctions when answering an unscheduled question at the end of his NATO presser yesterday. Biden claimed that sanctions were never intended to act as a deterrent but White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said in February: ‘The president believes that sanctions are intended to deter.’
• Pentagon spokesperson John Kirby has said that Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley have failed in attempts to reach their Russian counterparts since the invasion. The deconfliction channel between Moscow and Washington remains open but top-level engagement has almost entirely stopped. This is a precarious situation considering the ongoing threat of a nuclear escalation.
• Republican Rep. Jeff Fortenberry (R-NE) has been found guilty on three felonies charges by a federal jury in Los Angeles for lying to the FBI about knowledge of an illegal USD$30,000 campaign contribution from a foreign national. He will be sentenced on June 28 and could face a prison sentence.
• Poll of the day: A Pew Research Center report has shown the generic ballot tightening ahead of the midterms. Pollsters are becoming increasingly divergent in their results following the uptick in geopolitical risk.

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MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – US Daily Brief 25-03-22 .pdf