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MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – US Daily Brief 28-01-22

Executive Summary:

  • 14:00ET 19:00GMT: President Joe Biden is speaking on supply chain and infrastructure. In recent weeks the White House has been assertive in identifying the supply chain crisis as one of the primary drivers of inflation and again he is likely to outline how Build Back Better can ease inflation.
  • Democrats are calling for Build Back Better 2.0 to be passed before Biden’s State of the Union address on March 1. A compromise needs to be reached with Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) and may be made on child tax credits if the costing issues are addressed. Is it understood that Manchin can be sold on child tax credits if the scheme is capped. The saga will drag on and now there is pressure on the Senate schedule due to the incoming SCOTUS nomination making a March deadline optimistic.
  • Biden has approached a team of White House advisers with expertise in Supreme Court and Senate confirmations to assist in the process of fast-tracking his nomination.
  • A ‘long and frank’ call between Biden and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymr Zelensky yesterday has sparked a diplomatic war of words between the US and Ukraine but on the Russian side, there is an indication that tensions may be receding slightly.

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