MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Week Ahead 14-20 Feb

Executive Summary

All timings subject to change.

Monday 14 February:

• Europe: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has travelled to Kyiv for talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as concerns in the West reach new highs over a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine. The German government has faced significant criticism in Ukraine for its perceived soft stance towards Putin, with Germany refusing to supply defensive weaponry to Ukraine and not committing to hard-line sanctions on Nord Stream II in the event of an invasion.
• Turkey-UAE: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to visit the UAE for the first time in almost a decade as relations between Ankara and Abu Dhabi continue to show signs of improvement. Erdogan’s visit comes on the back of Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan’s visit to Turkey in late-2021. Backing opposing sides in regional conflicts and disagreement over gas exploration in the East Med has seen Turko-UAE relations deteriorate, but the recent reciprocal visits seem to have at least glossed over these divisions in an effort to promote regional stability.
• India: State elections take place in Goa, Uttarakhand, and the second phase of voting gets underway in Uttar Pradesh. In the former two, results set to be announced on 10 March. PM Narendra Modi’s Hindu nationalist BJP – currently governing in both states – is facing a stiff challenge in Uttarakhand where it could lose out to the opposition Congress Party. Goa looks set to deliver a hung parliament, requiring post-election coalition negotiations.

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Week Ahead 14-20 Feb.pdf