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Elections in Canada, Germany and Iceland, United Nations General Assembly convenets, Quad leaders meet in person, US Congress seeks CR on sustaining government funding

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Executive Summary:

All timings subject to change.

Monday 20 September:

  • Canada: Federal election takes place with opinion polls showing the contests as too close to call. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau hoping that his centre-left Liberals can win a majority, while centre-right Conservative leader Erin O'Toole looks for an unlikely plurality for his party after trailing behind the Liberals for much of his tenure as party head. Networks could call the result on Monday evening if the result is clear, but with mail-in ballots not being counted until Tuesday it could take longer if the polling, which shows the main parties neck-and-neck, is accurate.
  • United States: House of Representatives returns from a summer break, with the need to pass a continuing resolution to sustain government funding beyond the end of the month and a suspension of the debt ceiling. Democrats in the House set to pass both, but GOP support will be required in the Senate. Should the Democrats seek a debt ceiling hike rather than suspension, Senate Republican Whip John Thune (R-SD) has said it could threaten the overall CR. No set date for these votes yet.
  • United Kingdom: House of Commons set to debate the Social Security (Uprating of Benefits) Bill. Usually an uncontroversial subject, but this year it will see the 'triple lock' on state pensions broken due to pandemic-induced changes that would see a massive 8.8% increase this year if the system were not revised. The government has judged that to increase pensions by this amount while hitting younger workers with a National Insurance tax hike at the same time would create significant animosity among sections of the population. The SNP is seeking an amendment that acknowledges the government's breaking of a manifesto pledge.

Full PDF attached below

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Week Ahead 20-26 Sep.pdf