MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Week Ahead 29 Nov-5 Dec

Executive Summary:

All timings subject to change.

Monday 29 November:

• G7: Emergency meeting of health ministers set to take place to discuss the emergence of the Omicron COVID-19 variant, first identified by South African scientists. Ministers from Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK and the United States set to be in attendance virtually. A number of G7 nations have already imposed some form of travel restriction on flights from the affected areas, although it appears the variant is already prevalent in a number of the G7 states.
• United States:Congress returns this week following the Thanksgiving recess with a huge amount of legislative ground to cover. Federal government funding expires at midnight on Saturday (see Friday 3 Dec for more information). On Monday the Senate is due to vote on the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), which provides funding for the US military for another year. Failed to pass before recess due to the lack of a deal on 18 different amendments to the bill. Initial vote expected at 1730ET, with 60 votes needed to invoke cloture. Senate Democrats also seeking to get the Build Back Better bill to President Biden’s desk before year end (Congress goes into Christmas recess 13 December). BBB has passed in House, but in the likely event the Senate adds amendments to the bill, it will have to go back to the House for another vote.
• Iran: Talks on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPoA, the Iran nuclear deal) resume in Vienna, Austria. Iran as well as the JCPoA signatories (China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom) all set to participate as well as the EU. This will be the first resumption of JCPoA talks since the inauguration of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in August. US will engage with JCPoA signatories, but not directly with Iran. Expectations are low, given the Raisi administration’s hardline stance on Iran’s nuclear independence. US has stated that it would enforce Iran’s compliance ‘by other means’ if a diplomatic solution cannot be reached.
• China-Africa: The eighth Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) ministerial conference takes place in Dakar, Senegal. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao travel to Senegal, while Chinese President Xi Jinping is set to address the event via videolink. Ministerial conference is held every three years and the body has become a major facilitator of growing Chinese investment in African nations.

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Week Ahead 29 Nov-5 Dec.pdf