MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Week Ahead 4-10 April

Monday 4 April:

• Russia-Ukraine: Another round of peace talks are tentatively scheduled to take place between Russian and Ukrainian negotiators via videolink, but it is unclear whether these will go ahead. Reports from the Ukrainian towns of Bucha and Irpin over the weekend, alleging war crimes being committed by retreating Russian soldiers, could see the nascent positive steps towards a ceasefire spoken of last week evaporate swiftly.
• Eurozone: Eurogroup meeting of eurozone finance ministers takes place in Brussels. Arrivals from 1300CET, with post-meeting presser at 1800CET (1200ET, 1700BST). Primary topics of discussion will be the euro area impact resulting from the war in Ukraine, as well as EZ preparation for international meetings in the wake of Russia’s invasion. Ministers also set to discuss privacy considerations surrounding the ’digital euro’, and housing market developments in the EZ.
• Russia-MENA:Foreign Minister Segey Lavrov holds meetings with Arab League foreign ministers in Moscow to discuss the situation in Ukraine. FMs of Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Iraq and Sudan set to be in attendance. Arab nations, particularly in North Africa, have a significant reliance on the import of Russian and Ukrainian wheat to produce bread. A major shortfall in supply, resulting in shortages and price increases risks an uptick in political risk in the MENA region.
• United States: Senate Judiciary Committee meets at 1000ET (1500BST, 1600CET) to debate and vote on whether Supreme Court nominee Ketanji Brown Jackson should have her nomination advances to the full Senate. This is likely to deliver an 11-11 vote in committee, requiring the full Senate to vote on discharging Jackson from committee, requiring just a simple majority. This should provide majority leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) the ability to move from Tuesday to set up votes. Earliest final could take place is Thursday unless senators vote to speed up process, but with 30 hours of debate possible, the final vote could come as late as Friday.

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Week Ahead 4-10 April.pdf