MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS-Week Ahead 8-14 August

All timings subject to change.

Monday 8 August:

• China-South Korea: South Korean Foreign Minister Park Jin is set to embark on a three-day visit to China for talks with his counterpart Wang Yi. This will be the first trip to China for a high-level South Korean official since the inauguration of President Yoon Suk-yeol earlier this year. Seoul finds itself trying to balance relations with Beijing – South Korea’s largest trading partner – with those of Washington, D.C, which the Yoon administration has been seen as keen to develop closer defence ties with. Reuters reports Park as stating the trip to the port city of Qingdao will be an opportunity to improve Sino-Korean understanding and expand common interests.
• Iran Nuclear Deal:Talks continue in Vienna on the prospect of a deal being reached on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPoA, the Iran nuclear deal). Negotiators from Iran and all P4+1 nations (Germany, France, UK, Russia, China) are in attendance, while US diplomats are also present in the Austrian capital. Talks began late last week, but there appears to be little prospect of an agreement being agreed and ratified before the US midterms in November.
• US-SSA: US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken continues his three-day visit to South Africa (7-9 Aug) as part of a longer sub-Saharan African trip which includes visits to the Democratic Republic of Congo (9-10 Aug) and Rwanda (10-11 Aug). The visit, the first to the continent since November 2021, comes with explicit policy objectives rather than performing ceremonial duties. There remains concern in Washington, D.C., that SSA nations are coming under increasing Russian influence, as exemplified in the numerous UN votes condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, where several SSA nations (including South Africa) abstained. Blinken will be seeking public assurances that these countries governments are not shifting closer to the Russian camp in international affairs.
• Canada:Provincial legislature of Ontario returns for the first time since the incumbent centre-right Progressive Conservatives of Premier Doug Ford won a second consecutive majority in the June election. Throne Speech and the presentation of a provincial budget expected on 9 August. Ontario, as Canada’s most populous province and largest regional economy, has a significant impact on the overall Canadian economy and federal fiscal outlook. The Ford government is under pressure to significantly amend the budget, first presented in April, to assist with rising inflationary pressures hitting households and businesses, but at present it appears few changes are in the offing.
• UN:United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres continues a week-long tour of Asian nations. Having held a presser in Tokyo earlier on 8 August, Guterres is expected to travel onto Mongolia and South Korea between now and 15 August.

Full article PDF attached below:

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS-Week Ahead 8-14 August.pdf