MNI POLITICAL RISK-Elections Weekly: Traders Bet Against Biden

Executive Summary:

• It has been a week of recriminations after US President Joe Biden's calamitous performance in the first presidential debate with former President Donald Trump on June 27. At various points in the week, it appeared pressure on Biden to step aside would be unable to resist. But, Biden’s team has convinced wavering Democrats to allow the President a few days to turn his campaign around.
• There has been a slow trickle of polling since the debate which, while short of delivering a knockout blow, shows a challenging pathway to recovery, which may prove impossible with the tools available to Biden.
• Biden’s immediate future depends on the outcome of an ABC interview with George Stephanopoulos which will be broadcast in full today at 20:00 ET 01:00 BST, and then campaign speeches in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania – two key swing states that he must win to secure a second term.
• Traders, and many pundits, have coalesced around Vice President Kamala Harris as the most likely replacement for Biden. Notably, prediction markets now see Biden’s withdrawal from the race and Harris’ elevation to the top of the ticket as the baseline scenario.
• Inside: We have a full round-up of the week's notable polling, election forecast models, and prediction markets.

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MNIPOLRISKUSWeeklyTradersBetAgainstBiden .pdf