MNI POLITICAL RISK - Trump Shows Post-Debate Polling Strength

Executive Summary:

• The presidential race remains in flux following President Biden’s disastrous performance at the first presidential debate. The timeframe for Biden stepping aside is likely far tighter than some pundits have noted, as the DNC reportedly intends to confirm Biden as the Democratic Party nominee, as early as July 21.
• Secretary of State Antony Blinken felt obliged to defend Biden in public remarks yesterday, suggesting that international allies have privately expressed concerns to the State Department.
• Biden will deliver remarks on “extreme weather” at 11:45 ET 16:45 BST today. He will again use a teleprompter and is unlikely to field shouted press questions. The first major stumbling block for Biden is the July 9-11 NATO summit. Although foreign policy is an area of strength for Biden, press scrutiny will be intense.
• Biden and senior Democrats slammed the Supreme Court for ruling partially in favour of Trump’s claim to presidential immunity. The decision may allow the White House to reframe the discourse back onto Biden's core message – that Trump poses a threat to US democracy.
• The Biden administration has announced its first major cash stimulus from the federal funding pot procured by the CHIPS and Science Act of 2022 to reduce labour shortages in the high-tech sector.
• The Pentagon has dispatched an amphibious assault ship to the Eastern Mediterranean amid concerns of a war between Israel and Hezbollah.
• Poll of the Day: Trump is now leading in New Hampshire, a flashing warning sign for Biden.

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MNIPOLRISKUSDaily020724.pdf