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MNI POLITICAL RISK-US Elections Weekly: Trump’s Guilty Verdict

Weekly snapshop of the US Elections

Political RiskPolitical Market News

Executive Summary:

  • On May 30, former President Donald Trump was found guilty by a Manhattan jury on 34 counts of falsifying business records. The charges are considered a felony, rather than a misdemeanour, as they were deemed to have been committed in furtherance of a separate crime – in this case violation of New York State election law. The charges carry no mandatory minimum custodial sentence but could incur up to four years in prison per charge. Trump will be sentenced on July 11. Most legal experts consider it unlikely Trump will face prison time.
  • We wrote in the previous edition of the MNI US Elections Weekly that the guilty verdict would likely lead to a short-term polling boost for president Biden, but that bump would be unlikely to be durable.
  • In line with expectations, early polling suggests that Biden has indeed received a minor boost in the polls. When averaged, four national polls taken after the verdict show a 1-point swing to Biden. However, prediction markets have largely shrugged off the Manhattan verdict and erased the immediate move towards Biden.
  • This article includes analysis of the early polling and prediction market response to the guilty verdict, an overview of some of the indirect effects of the Manhattan verdict, and a general polling update.

Please find the full article attached below:

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Executive Summary:

  • On May 30, former President Donald Trump was found guilty by a Manhattan jury on 34 counts of falsifying business records. The charges are considered a felony, rather than a misdemeanour, as they were deemed to have been committed in furtherance of a separate crime – in this case violation of New York State election law. The charges carry no mandatory minimum custodial sentence but could incur up to four years in prison per charge. Trump will be sentenced on July 11. Most legal experts consider it unlikely Trump will face prison time.
  • We wrote in the previous edition of the MNI US Elections Weekly that the guilty verdict would likely lead to a short-term polling boost for president Biden, but that bump would be unlikely to be durable.
  • In line with expectations, early polling suggests that Biden has indeed received a minor boost in the polls. When averaged, four national polls taken after the verdict show a 1-point swing to Biden. However, prediction markets have largely shrugged off the Manhattan verdict and erased the immediate move towards Biden.
  • This article includes analysis of the early polling and prediction market response to the guilty verdict, an overview of some of the indirect effects of the Manhattan verdict, and a general polling update.

Please find the full article attached below:

Keep reading...Show less