MNI POLITICAL RISK - US-Iran Deal Begins To Take Shape

Executive Summary:

• The framework of an informal agreement between the US and Iran appears to be taking shape. A deal is likely to fall short of the sort of providing the sanctions relief required to bring Iranian oil back to markets but may lay the groundwork for a more substantive deal.
• Hardline House Republican continue to express little concern over a government shutdown. Unlike the standoff over the debt limit, this time Senate Republicans are expected to be less accommodating of House priorities.
• On June 21, the Senate Banking Committee is set to markup the most significant banking reform legislation since 2018.
• Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo will say today that, “there is clear evidence” of the success of the US-led price cap on Russian hydrocarbons despite reports that Russian oil sales are increasing.
• US aid to Ukraine may be complicated by the latest standoff between GOP conservatives and Republican leadership in the House of Representatives.
• Poll of the Day: Republicans are less likely to approve of former President Donald Trump's storage of government material than they were last August.

Please find the full article attached below:

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS - US Daily Brief 16-06-23 .pdf