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Free AccessMNI:US Growth Potential Sluggish Post Covid-Jackson Hole Paper
The U.S. economy's potential growth will likely remain sluggish for years after Covid-19, dashing hopes the pandemic would give way to an era of rapid productivity growth, according to research being presented Friday at the Kansas City Fed's Jackson Hole conference.
The pandemic does not seem likely to lead to sharp changes in research effort or a burst of ideas pushing the economy away from its "slow-productivity-growth trajectory," wrote San Francisco Fed economists John Fernald and Huiyu Li.
They estimate potential growth in a 1.5% to 1.75% range five to ten years out, and demographic trends mean labor supply growth is likely to remain low by historical standards.
"We find little evidence that the pandemic has so far caused substantial changes, up or down, to the economy’s sluggish pre-pandemic longer-run growth-rate path," the authors said.
Labor productivity has shown little change through the pandemic, with initially strong growth as many workers became unemployed followed by weak efficiency gains, the researchers found. Worker shortages that should reverse over time have also dragged the near-term level of potential output lower, they said. Potential output was estimated as falling 1.5pp to 2pp as of the end of 2021 due to outsized retirements and other supply factors.
One bright spot is the authors' finding that industries where it's easy to work from home have grown somewhat faster than they did pre-pandemic, but even that varies from industry to industry. Call center workers appeared to be more productive while IT professionals were less so.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.