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Free AccessMNI Projects National CPI In Line At 4.5-4.6% Y/Y, Core 4.6%
We have now received state data that equates to 86.7% weighting of the national German CPI print (due at 1300 BST / 1400 CET).
- MNI calculations estimate that national CPI rose by 0.27% m/m and 4.54% y/y. This is based on the published index values for available state data. The data implies readings a touch below expectations for the y/y print of 4.6%, rounded to 0.3% m/m and 4.5% y/y.
- The significant deceleration was driven as expected by the 9 EUR transport ticket base effect, and continued disinflation of food and energy prices.
- Today's state data points to core CPI (ex-energy and food) of 4.6% Y/Y, vs 5.5% in August. Core CPI data is only available for 6 states accounting for 50.0% of the headline index so this is a rough estimate.
- There is no BBG consensus print for core CPI but Goldman Sachs forecast a 1.0pp drop in core HICP, so a similar drop in the core CPI figure looks to put it roughly in line.
- Note: these estimates are in relation to the national CPI print, not the HICP print which feeds into the Eurozone HICP print that the ECB targets. The magnitude of surprises to consensus can sometimes be different due to the different methodologies and weights used in national CPI vs HICP - but the direction of the surprise is normally the same.
| Y/Y | September (reported) | August (reported) | Difference |
| North Rhine Westphalia | 4.2% | 5.9% | -1.7% |
| Hesse | 4.7% | 6.0% | -1.3% |
| Bavaria | 4.1% | 5.9% | -1.8% |
| Brandenburg | 5.6% | 7.1% | -1.5% |
| Baden Wuert. | 5.1% | 7.0% | -1.9% |
| Berlin | 5.1% | 6.3% | -1.2% |
| Saxony | 5.4% | 6.8% | -1.4% |
| Rhineland-Palatinate | 4.5% | 5.6% | -1.1% |
| Lower Saxony | 4.5% | 6.0% | -1.5% |
| Saarland | 4.8% | 6.0% | -1.2% |
| Weighted average: | 4.54% | for | 86.7% |
| M/M | September (reported) | August (reported) | Difference |
| North Rhine Westphalia | 0.2% | 0.5% | -0.3% |
| Hesse | 0.3% | 0.2% | -0.1% |
| Bavaria | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Brandenburg | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| Baden Wuert. | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Berlin | 0.5% | 0.3% | -0.2% |
| Saxony | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Rhineland-Palatinate | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Lower Saxony | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Saarland | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Weighted average: | 0.27% | for | 86.7% |
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.