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MNI RBA Preview - July 2022: Everything Points To 50

Data & RBA guidance see most pointing to a 50bp rate hike.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • The analytical community is unanimously behind the idea that the RBA will deliver further tightening at its July meeting, with 25 of the 26 surveyed by BBG looking for a 50bp hike and just one looking a 75bp step. The STIR space currently prices in ~43bp of tightening come the end of the Bank’s July meeting, which equates to just under a 75% chance of a 50bp hike.
  • Domestic data flow & recent comments from Governor Lowe indicate that a 50bp hike will be implemented.
  • Market pricing surrounding RBA tightening continues to look aggressive.
  • Expect the Board to reiterate its guidance that it “expects to take further steps in the process of normalising monetary conditions in Australia over the months ahead.” Q2 CPI data (due 27 July) is set to provide the next major yardstick when it comes to assessing the velocity of any future RBA tightening,
  • Click to view full preview:MNI RBA Preview - July 2022.pdf
Fig. 1: The Recent Evolution Of Market Pricing Of The RBA Cash Rate

Source: MNI - Market News/ASX/Bloomberg

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • The analytical community is unanimously behind the idea that the RBA will deliver further tightening at its July meeting, with 25 of the 26 surveyed by BBG looking for a 50bp hike and just one looking a 75bp step. The STIR space currently prices in ~43bp of tightening come the end of the Bank’s July meeting, which equates to just under a 75% chance of a 50bp hike.
  • Domestic data flow & recent comments from Governor Lowe indicate that a 50bp hike will be implemented.
  • Market pricing surrounding RBA tightening continues to look aggressive.
  • Expect the Board to reiterate its guidance that it “expects to take further steps in the process of normalising monetary conditions in Australia over the months ahead.” Q2 CPI data (due 27 July) is set to provide the next major yardstick when it comes to assessing the velocity of any future RBA tightening,
  • Click to view full preview:MNI RBA Preview - July 2022.pdf
Fig. 1: The Recent Evolution Of Market Pricing Of The RBA Cash Rate

Source: MNI - Market News/ASX/Bloomberg