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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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MNI RBI Preview - August 2022: A 35bps Hike... But It's A Close Call
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- The broad-based consensus is for the RBI to hike rates when the outcome of this week’s policy meeting is announced on Friday. The main question is by how much rates go up by. The Bloomberg consensus sees the policy rate going to 5.25% from the current 4.90%, hence a 35bps rise. This is also our expectation but it is a close and a 50bps hike wouldn't be a surprise.
- This uncertainty reflects mixed cross currents in terms of the outlook. On the one hand inflation pressures remain very elevated, just over 7% YoY and well above the RBI’s target range of 2-6%. There are signs that pressures are easing though.
- While inflation will be the bigger focus point for this meeting, RBI Governor Das may also be mindful of jeopardizing economic momentum around tightening the policy rate too quickly. Our sense is that with signs inflation pressures may ease, this gives the RBI some room to be a little less aggressive in terms of the pace of tightening.
- Click to view full preview: RBI Preview - August 2022.pdf
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.