MNI: POWELL SAYS PCE INFLATION CAME IN LINE WITH EXPECTATIONS

MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, March 29

MNI: PBOC Injects Net CNY148 Bln Via OMO Fri; Rates Unchanged

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.0950 Fri; -4.70% Y/Y

CHINA PBOC INJECTS CNY150 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS FRI

CHINA SETS YUAN CENTRAL PARITY AT 7.0950 FRI VS 7.0948

MNI: US FEB PERSONAL INCOME +0.3%; NOM PCE +0.8%

HICP Tracking at 2.4%Y/Y - One tenth below consensus

HICP 2 tenths softer than expected, but partly on clothing prices

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

MNI: Growth Drag From Net Zero Carbon Goal Can Be Offset-OECD

MNI BRIEF: Lawmakers Signal Tough Hearing For BOC's Macklem

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MNI RBI Preview - August 2022: A 35bps Hike... But It's A Close Call

RBI

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • The broad-based consensus is for the RBI to hike rates when the outcome of this week’s policy meeting is announced on Friday. The main question is by how much rates go up by. The Bloomberg consensus sees the policy rate going to 5.25% from the current 4.90%, hence a 35bps rise. This is also our expectation but it is a close and a 50bps hike wouldn't be a surprise.
  • This uncertainty reflects mixed cross currents in terms of the outlook. On the one hand inflation pressures remain very elevated, just over 7% YoY and well above the RBI’s target range of 2-6%. There are signs that pressures are easing though.
  • While inflation will be the bigger focus point for this meeting, RBI Governor Das may also be mindful of jeopardizing economic momentum around tightening the policy rate too quickly. Our sense is that with signs inflation pressures may ease, this gives the RBI some room to be a little less aggressive in terms of the pace of tightening.
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