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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessMNI RBNZ Review - November 2023: Watching Inflation Risks
- The RBNZ left rates at 5.5% as was widely expected but given the statement, press conference and forecast revisions it was a hawkish hold that reiterated the “high for longer” message. The impact of strong population growth has become “apparent” and it is “increasing the risk of inflation remaining above target”.
- The MPC noted that it “would likely need to increase” rates again if inflation is higher than expected and Governor Orr stated that it is “willing” to act if needed and a 25bp rise had been discussed.
- There were near-term upward revisions to growth and downward ones to inflation as expected, but a recession is no longer forecast and the H2 2024 CPI projections are now higher. As a result, the 2024 OCR is 20bp higher than current rates and 50bp of easing has been taken out of the trajectory by Q3 2026.
- The next meeting is not until February 28 and there will be a lot of information for the MPC to digest by then. For easing to begin the RBNZ needs to be “confident” that inflation will be at the mid-point of the band in 1 to 2 years.
- See full review here.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.