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MNI RBNZ Review - November 2023: Watching Inflation Risks

RBNZ
  • The RBNZ left rates at 5.5% as was widely expected but given the statement, press conference and forecast revisions it was a hawkish hold that reiterated the “high for longer” message. The impact of strong population growth has become “apparent” and it is “increasing the risk of inflation remaining above target”.
  • The MPC noted that it “would likely need to increase” rates again if inflation is higher than expected and Governor Orr stated that it is “willing” to act if needed and a 25bp rise had been discussed.
  • There were near-term upward revisions to growth and downward ones to inflation as expected, but a recession is no longer forecast and the H2 2024 CPI projections are now higher. As a result, the 2024 OCR is 20bp higher than current rates and 50bp of easing has been taken out of the trajectory by Q3 2026.
  • The next meeting is not until February 28 and there will be a lot of information for the MPC to digest by then. For easing to begin the RBNZ needs to be “confident” that inflation will be at the mid-point of the band in 1 to 2 years.
  • See full review here.
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