MNI REALITY CHECK: UK Retail Sales In Line For Reopening Surge

UK retail sales surged in April, according to industry leaders, as non-essential stores reopened in England mid-month, suggesting that volumes could exceed the 4.5% monthly increase forecast by City analysts. Sales were boosted by the return of shoppers to a broader range of retailers from April 12, providing an easy comparison with March, when non-essential shops were shuttered.

Retailers were somewhat disappointed with footfall, which was down approximately 25% on 2019, according to one industry leader. However, shoppers braved the High Street with purpose, significantly lifting the amount spent per head.

BUYERS BACK

"Following the reopening of so-called non-essential stores in England and Wales … retail sales enjoyed a welcome boost last month. With the short-term pent-up demand for the shopping experience drawing consumers back to stores, non food sales across stores and online increased by a quarter between March and April," Helen Dickinson, chief executive of the British Retail Consortium said.

Sales of household and garden items continued to rise, although March could provide a challenging comparison after household goods sales jumped by 3.7%. Internet sales declined by approximately 12% in April, but recovered toward the end of the month, suggesting that some of the shift to online shopping may persist.

"Retail is still having a bit of a boom. There has been some migration of volume back to the high street. The first few weeks of April were down [for internet sales], but sales balanced out again" toward the end of the month, Andy Mulcahy, Strategy and Insight director at IMRG told MNI.

SUPERMARKET SWEEP

Supermarket sales remained strong, although sales of food -- and especially alcohol -- slumped after outdoor dining resumed at mid month.

"The week-on-week data indicates food and drink sales slowed from mid-April, although some momentum was regained toward the end of the month. Inevitably, food and drink will settle at a reduced rate of growth as the competitive landscape normalises'" according to Susan Barrat, CEO at IGD.

Frasar McKevit at Kantar said grocers had enjoyed a very busy four weeks, "as the number of trips made in April increased by 4% compared to March" , but he warned the return of "wider retailer and hospitality will naturally have a knock-on effect for the grocers."

Andrew Goodacre, CEO of the Independent Retail Association, was upbeat as non-essential shops reopened, but recognized the challenges ahead. "April was encouraging, but we know we're not out of the woods … Footfall was nowhere near what we'd like to have seen …I fear that we've lost some footfall permanently." But independent retailers noted "a greater intent to purchase," with the spend per head increasing despite lower footfall.

Remembering that this time last year we were in lockdown, there are some outstanding growth figures in April, especially in non-food within categories such as jewellery, accessories and footwear which all registered triple-digit growth," Paul Martin head of UK retail at KPMG said. Martin, along with BRC's Dickenson, are co-sponsors of the monthly shop sales index.

The Office for National Statistics will publish the April data at 0600GMT Friday May 21.