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MNI Riksbank Preview: February 2024 - QT Acceleration Eyed

RIKSBANK

The Riksbank is widely expected to leave the policy rate on hold at 4.00% in its first meeting of 2024, with most focus on whether (or, more likely, by how much) the pace of government bond sales will be increased.

  • The MNI Markets Team expects no change to the policy rate and an increase in the pace of bond sales to around SEK6.5bln/month.
  • Of the analyst previews we have seen, there is a unanimous expectation for rates to be held steady. With respect to QT, all but one analyst that expressed a view expect an increase from the current pace of SEK5bln/month, with estimates ranging from SEK5bln (no change to the current pace) to SEK8bln. The median estimate is SEK7bln.

For our full preview, including a summary of 14 sell-side views, see the PDF here.

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