Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Executive Summary:
- Upgrades to inflation and growth forecasts not enough to shift rate path
- The bank's projections extend into Q3 2024 at this release
- There are nascent expectations that the bank could begin to signal rate liftoff at the very long-end of their forecast horizon
Full piece here:
Inline with the most recent set of rate path projections, the Riksbank are firmly expected to keep policy unchanged this week, with some focus likely to be paid to new repo rate path projections. The bank's projections extend into Q3 2024 at this release, and there are nascent expectations that the bank could begin to signal rate liftoff at the very long-end of their forecast horizon.
Forwards pricing eyes gradual tightening possible from 2022 onwards
Source: MNI/Riksbank
Such a move would be supported by the growth and inflation turnouts since the previous monetary policy report, with both GDP data and CPIF releases coming in ahead of the Riksbank's April expectations. Nonetheless, underlying inflation is already beginning to show signs of a near-term peak, which supports the Bank's view that inflation pressures are still low. As such, these price rises do not need to be pinched off by tightening policy too early. The Bank looked to reinforce this message to markets at the last report, stressing that the pandemic is not over and that there are clear risks should policy support be reduced too soon.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.