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MNI SARB Review - January 2023: Dovish Hike Takes SARB Closer To Cycle End

Executive Summary:

  • The SARB wrong-footed markets and voted 3-2 to raise the repo rate by 25bp rather than the expected 50bp
  • The outlook for headline inflation stayed little changed, while growth forecasts were subject to downward revisions amid the anticipated impact of logistical issues and load-shedding
  • The decision applied some pressure to the ZAR and supported local equities, while prompting market participants to reduce rate-hike bets
Full review including summary of sell-side views here:

MNI SARB Review - January 23.pdf

The South African Reserve Bank raised the repo rate by the lower-than-expected 25bp to 7.25%, edging closer to the end of its rate-hike cycle. The inflation outlook was subject to only minor tweaks, which came alongside notable downgrades to GDP growth forecasts, pointing to the evolution of the SARB’s reaction function. Although the central bank sought to reaffirm its commitment to ensuring price stability, it seems increasingly concerned about the impact of lingering logistical issues and unprecedented load-shedding on South Africa’s economy.
HomepageCEMEA Bank - ReviewSouth African Reserve - ReviewEM Central Bank ReportsEM Central Bank ReviewEmerging Market News

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