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MNI Survey Of China Economic Forecasts

MNI (Singapore)
     BEIJING (MNI) - All figures y/y percentage change unless otherwise
specified 
                                                                         TSF Oct
                    CPI Oct  PPI Oct  M2 ytd Oct  New Loans Oct CNY Bln  CNY Bln
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Median                  1.8      6.6         9.2                  773.0   1100.0
High                    2.0      7.3         9.4                 1270.0   1820.0
Low                     1.5      6.1         9.0                  600.0    850.0
Mean                    1.8      6.5         9.2                  765.4   1134.6
No.                      15       22          22                     21       13
Previous                1.6      6.9         9.2                   1270     1820
BankComm                1.8      6.6         9.2                    750       na
Bank of China           1.8      6.1         9.2                     na       na
Capital Economics       1.9      6.7         9.0                    600      900
CITIC Sec               1.8      6.2         9.1                    600       na
CICC                    1.9      6.4         9.2                    600      850
China Sec               1.8      6.4         9.1                    780       na
Guotai Junan            1.7      6.5         9.2                    800     1000
Huachang Sec            1.9      6.6         9.0                    800       na
Huatai Sec              1.8      6.7         9.0                    800     1100
Industrial Bank         1.7      6.6         9.3                    610      870
ING                     1.5      7.3         9.3                    970       na
Merchant Sec            1.9      6.6         9.3                    800     1200
Mizuho                  2.0      6.4         9.0                    700       na
Nomura                  1.6      6.7         9.0                    700     1100
Northeast Sec           1.6      6.9         9.2                   1270     1820
Peking U Rsrch          1.9      6.8         9.2                    800       na
Sinolink Sec            1.8      6.1         9.1                    700     1100
Southwest Sec           1.8      6.4         9.2                    773       na
Shanghai Sec            1.8      6.7         9.4                    800     1310
Shenwan Hongyuan        1.8      6.3         9.1                    920     1200
Standard Chartered      1.9      6.6         9.2                    700     1000
UBS                     1.8      6.3         9.2                    600     1300
                    Trade  Exports  Imports     Investment   Output       Retail
                 Bal $Bln      $ %      $ %        YTD Oct      Oct    Sales Oct
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Median               38.9      7.1     16.1            7.4      6.3         10.4
High                 46.0     12.1     21.0            7.7      6.8         10.8
Low                  25.0      5.0     11.0            7.0      6.0         10.0
Mean                 38.1      7.4     16.8            7.3      6.3         10.4
No.                    18       22       22             22       22           22
Previous            28.47      8.1     18.7            7.5      6.6         10.3
BankComm             40.8      7.5     16.0            7.4      6.0         10.8
Bank of China          na      7.5     20.0            7.4      6.6         10.5
Capital
Economics            25.0      5.0     15.0            7.2      6.0         10.5
CITIC Sec            35.7      6.0     11.0            7.7      6.4         10.2
CICC                   na      7.1     16.0            7.3      6.1         10.5
China Sec              na      7.5     15.0            7.3      6.2         10.3
Guotai Junan         36.6      7.0     18.7            7.0      6.0         10.7
Huachang Sec         42.5      7.0     14.0            7.5      6.1         10.3
Huatai Sec           35.0      7.5     20.5            7.4      6.4         10.0
IndustrialBank       37.0      6.0     20.0            7.3      6.2         10.1
ING                  42.5     12.1     21.0            7.4      6.6         10.1
Merchant Sec         46.0      9.1     14.2            7.2      6.2         10.6
Mizuho               39.0      6.5     16.5            7.3      6.2         10.5
Nomura               38.7      7.0     17.0            7.4      6.3         10.1
Northeast Sec        28.6      8.1     18.7            7.5      6.6         10.3
Peking U Rsrch       45.0      8.5     14.0            7.6      6.3         10.5
Sinolink Sec           na      6.8     16.0            7.2      6.3         10.2
Southwest Sec        39.4      7.3     16.1            7.4      6.3         10.4
Shanghai Sec         38.0      9.1     20.5            7.3      6.8         10.5
Shenwan
Hongyuan             35.8      6.6     18.7            7.4      6.3         10.4
Standard
Chartered            40.0      7.0     16.0            7.2      6.2         10.5
UBS                  40.4      6.5     15.0            7.2      6.2         10.4
     Note: The survey median is compiled solely from the forecasts listed above
and is not intended to represent a market consensus.
     October trade data due for release on Nov. 8.
     October CPI, PPI due for release at 0930 local/0130 GMT Nov. 9; Oct.
industrial output, retail sales and ytd fixed-asset investment due for release
at 1000 local/0200 GMT on Nov. 14. 
     October money supply, bank loans and total social financing expected to be
released between Nov. 10 and Nov. 15. Date and time uncertain.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +86 (10) 8532-5998; email: beijing@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE,MAQDT$,M$A$$$,M$Q$$$]

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