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Recession Consensus Mounts: "Growth Recession" Views (1/4)

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Outlook Remains Bearish

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MNI Survey of US Economic Forecasts: Jun 17 - Jun 20 

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 21:06 GMT Jun 14/17:06 EST Jun 14
                      Jun 17   Jun 18    Jun 18    Jun 20   Jun 20        Jun 20
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                      Empire                      Initial           Phil Fed Mfg
                         Mfg  Housing  Building   Jobless  Current           Mfg
                      Survey   Starts   Permits    Claims  Account        Survey
                                                   Jun 15
Data For                 Jun      May       May        wk       1Q           Jun
Median Forecast **      10.0     1.24      1.30       220   -124.6          12.0
High Forecast           17.8     1.25      1.31       230   -117.1          17.0
Low Forecast             5.0      1.2      1.28       215   -134.4           8.0
Mean                    11.0      1.2      1.29       221   -124.2          11.9
Standard Deviation       3.5     0.02       0.0       5.3      5.4           2.9
No. of Responses           8       16         9         7        6            13
Amherst Pierpont          NA     1.24        NA        NA       NA            NA
BofA/Merrill Lynch        NA       NA        NA       220   -117.1          10.0
Bank of the West        10.0     1.23      1.29       225   -125.0           9.0
Capital Economics       10.0     1.18        NA        NA       NA          10.0
CIBC                      NA     1.25      1.28        NA       NA            NA
Commerzbank              5.0     1.20      1.28       225       NA          17.0
Credit Suisse             NA     1.25        NA        NA       NA            NA
Deka                      NA       NA        NA        NA       NA           8.0
Deutsche Bank           10.0     1.20      1.31        NA       NA           9.0
FT Advisors              9.3     1.24        NA       218   -119.7          15.1
HSBC                      NA       NA        NA        NA   -124.2          12.0
Jefferies
Economics               12.0     1.24      1.30       230       NA          12.0
Lloyds Bank             14.0     1.24      1.31       215   -125.0          12.0
Morgan Stanley            NA     1.20      1.28        NA       NA            NA
Nomura                    NA       NA        NA        NA       NA          14.0
NTL Bank Canada           NA     1.25      1.31        NA       NA            NA
RBC                       NA     1.25        NA       215       NA          10.0
SocGen                    NA     1.21        NA        NA       NA            NA
Umaryland               17.8     1.24      1.30        NA   -134.4          16.6
Wells Fargo               NA     1.24        NA        NA       NA            NA
** Note: The survey median is compiled solely from the forecasts listed above
and is not intended to represent a market consensus.
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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