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MNI TRANSCRIPT: Powell on Future Rate Hike Discussion

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following is the portion of a transcript from
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference after the FOMC meeting
     Q: How big of a change to monetary policy if you get some of that
uncertainty cleared up. Phase 1 China deal finished and USCMA ratified. How big
of a change. Could we see rate cuts next year? Rate hikes next year, I'm sorry.
I have heard the argument that trade is causing uncertainty. I have heard that
argument from Fed president. So you remove that uncertainty and prices would
rise. Could there be a point, I guess my question is how big of an impact on
monetary policy would removing that uncertainty --
     A: I would say that if we were to a sustained reduction in trade tensions,
broad reduction in trade ten tensions, that would bode well for business
sentiment which is trade uncertainty has been weighing on business sentiment in
our judgment and in the judgment of many analysts. And ultimately it could
affect activity. I wouldn't expect that the affects on activity or confidence
would be immediate or -- would there be immediate affects in economic activity.
I think it would take some time after the recent things but I do think it would
be quite positive over time. You come back to the question of raising rates.
That's about inflation and we haven't yet -- we just touched 2% core inflation
to pick one me sure. Just touched it for a few months and then we fallen back.
So I think we would need to see a really significant move up in inflation that's
persistent before we even consider raising rates to address inflation concerns.
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202 371 2121; email:

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