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MNI: U.S. Consumers Raise Outlook for Inflation- NY Fed Survey


Year-ahead home and rent price growth expectations increased to record highs in Fed consumer survey

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U.S. consumers upped their short-term inflation expectations again in April to an 8-year high, although medium-term inflation expectations were unchanged, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey published Monday.

Year-ahead median inflation expectations ticked up to 3.36% in April from 3.24% in March, the highest since September 2013, while three year-ahead median inflation expectations were unchanged at 3.10%.

Some Fed advisers and ex-officials are worried that low interest rates and the large spending proposals from President Joe Biden's administration could lead to a spike in inflation and inflation expectations as the economy gains traction.


Median year-ahead home and rent price growth expectations also increased, with both reaching new series highs.

The survey shows consumers expect homes prices to increase sharply from 4.8% in March to 5.5% in April, a broad--based increase across age, education, and income. Consumers' views about rent prices increased for the fifth straight time to a series' high of 9.5%, from 9.3% in March. Consumers surveyed by the New York Fed also downgraded expectations for gas prices, with indicators retreating to 9.2% in April from a series high of 9.9% in March.

The survey of consumer expectations is based on a rotating panel of roughly 1,300 households.